Australia v South Africa Champions Trophy Tips: Saffers solid to take down Aussies

Australia v South Africa
Tuesday 25 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Australia v South Africa Champions Trophy team news

Australia are buoyant after a dominant chase against England on a flat one in Lahore. They chased 352 with ease and what may have been most pleasing was that they didn't rely on the big names. Josh Inglis, with a ton, and Alex Carey got the job done.

Despite conceding such a total, the work in the field wasn't too bad. The Lahore surface was extremely flat and Nathan Ellis's old-school style of cutters and slower balls were valuable. 

It was perhaps surprising that Sean Abbott was left out for Ben Dwarshuis but the latter did manage new-ball inroads. It's not the Aussie style to change a winning team and a varied attack may well work well again on a potentially good batting wicket in 'Pindi. 

Probable XI: Head, Short, Smith, Labuschagne, Inglis, Carey, Maxwell, Dwashuis, Ellis, Zampa, Johnson,

South Africa are sweating on the fitness of Heinrich Klaasen, who missed their opening win over Afghanistan with an elbow injury. The official line was that it was a precaution. Some gamble given the damage a defeat first up can do.

They didn't miss him, though. Ryan Rickleton smashed a century and took the gloves. There were half-centuries for Aiden Markram, Temba Bavuma and David Miller. If there was a criticism it is that they perhaps lost their way in the middle overs and should have posted something bigger.

If Klaasen is fit, we would expect Tony De Zorzi to make way. Bavuma will open the batting. 

Possible XI:  Rickelton, Bavuma, van der Dussen, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Jansen, Mulder, Maharaj, Rabada, Ngidi

Australia v South Africa Champions Trophy pitch report

The Rawalpindi surface looked a little sticky in first-innings in the Bangladesh-New Zealand clash. One always has to caveat with the Bangladesh batting but 181 dots really does suggest it is not the flat surface that we had been expecting. A change in strategy then from preparing for a road for a surface which rewards spinners may make sense. Par liunes in the 300s could well be a short because the market will assume that Bangladesh incompetence was the biggest factor. . 

Australia v South Africa Champions Trophy match prediction

Australia contests with South Africa in ICC ODI events used to be nothing of the sort. It was a guaranteed cakewalk for the Aussies as South Africa were so often beaten before they had started against a side which had got into their heads.

But 2019 changed all that when the Saffers snapped a run of four head-to-heads without a win with a nail-biting success in Manchester. Two more wins followed and it is forgotten that before defeat to Australia in the last World Cup semi, they hammered them in the group stage. 

In short, they should have no fears. And if they get the opportunity to bat first they are more than capable of a total - maybe 260 could be very tough - which makes pre-toss prices of 2.265/4 look big. Given that this is an Aussie second-strong bowling attack, it feels harsh that South Africa are not shorter. 

Australia v South Africa Champions Trophy player bets

We were on Travis Head and Adam Zampa for most runs and most wickets against England respectively. We see no reason to abandon either player now, although with a slight tweak on the bet for Head. With a great batting wicket expected, milestones make more sense so we switch from top-bat to the 6/42.50 that Head makes a fifty. It just feel wise to take others out of the equation. Zampa is 11/43.75 for most Aussie wickets and with a win rate of 36% in the last two years and three blanks in the last two weeks, he is very much approaching the win zone.

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