Afghanistan v England Champions Trophy Tips: Afghan spin to knock out England

Afghanistan v England Superboost

England's Champions Trophy campaign continues against Afghanistan from 9am UK time on Wednesday and the Betfair Sportsbook have a superboost for this crucial game.

Jos Buttler's men need to get their campaign back on track after their defeat to Australia. To do that, England need Ben Duckett and Joe Root to excel at the crease, so Betfair have boosted the price on the pair hitting a combined seven boundaries from 4/71.57 to 1/12.00. They hit 24 boundaries between them against Australia so we reckon the price is appealing.

Afghanistan v England
Wednesday 26 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan v England Champions Trophy team news

Afghanistan disappointed against South Africa in their opener meaning this is must-win. They couldn't quite get their bowling unit to hunt as a group and were left with a big total to chase.

Batting is their weakest suit, as highlighted by the fact they have shoehorned an extra option into their XI. Sediqullah Atal at No 3 means they go with only one specialist pacer in Faz Farooqi, thus lengthening the batting to No 9. Gulbadin Naib and Amat Omarzai can bowl seam. They do have 30 overs of spin available, 40 if we include Rahmat Shah who is also classed as an all-rounder. 

Probable XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Atal, Hashmatullah, Rahmat, Omarzai, Naib, Nabi, Rashid, Noor, Farooqi,

England have lost Brydon Carse to injury with spin all-rounder Rehan Ahmed his replacement. It is harsh to say but the absence of Carse could turn out to be a blessing if England were to qualify for the Dubai semi-final as their squad is more balanced. They have been crying out for more variation with the ball.

But we think this game may come too soon for Rehan. Instead England may give Jamie Overton a go. Rehan didn't play at all on the white-ball tour of India in preparation for this tournament. Ben Duckett's majaestic ton against the Aussies wasn't enough as their lack of nous defending was exposed. Adil rashid aside they are entirely reliant on brute force with the ball.

Probable XI:  Duckett, Salt, Smith, Root, Brook, Buttler, Livingstone, J Overton, Archer, Rashid, Wood

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Afghanistan v England Champions Trophy pitch report

The Lahore surface looked incredibly flat as Australia chased England's 352 with 15 balls remaining. It is fair to say that England should have troubled a minimum of 380 from the platform that they had. England's par line may be set in the mid 330s batting first. But the innings runs could be one to target in-play if England bat first and set a platform again. We don't have huge faith they keep the hammer down and an opportunity to lay 380, 390 and 400 cheaply from the 30-over mark is a strategy. One would normally expect the 30-over score to be doubled and the bet may be that England don't. 

Afghanistan v England Champions Trophy match prediction

Afghanistan are value at 3.953/1 to get the win that keeps their tournament alive and put England out. In an ideal world Afghanistan bat first - and you can apply that caveat if you wish - but there just isn't the gulf between the teams that the odds suggest.

It is a perfectly legitimate rationale to reckon that a clever, efficient and mean bowling unit can make the difference on a flat batting wicket. And guess what? That unit is not England. They will rely on pace to upset Afghanistan. It could work and has worked before but the Lahore wicket appears to need more variation, more guile. England have the worst economy rate of any side in the comp in the last two years. That's why they were beaten by Australia.

The clue is in how England, other than Duckett, struggled against Adam Zampa and Marnus Labuschagne of all people. If Labuschagne took two wickets then Rashid Khan, noor Ahmad and Mohammad Nabi will say 'we're in this'. England's old failings against spin are the game.

They're not too hot at chasing, either. England have lost seven of their last 11 batting second. They could well have a collapse in the face of a total of 300 or more which is within the grasp of a solid rather than specatcular Afghan batting.

Afghanistan v England Champions Trophy player bets

Duckett took his top-bat win rate to 37% in the last two years with a ton against the Aussies and we're smarting after siding with Harry Brook in the toss-up between the two. On a flat wicket we keep faith with Brook but instead go for milestones to take others out of the equation. So the 2/13.00 with Sportsbook that he makes a half-century is an option. Rahmanullah Gurbaz is value on the same market at 5/23.50 as we swop out the 4/15.00 top-bat bet (win rate 25%). With the ball, just a reminder that Rashid Khan is not a winner regularly enough to back with a win rate of 11.5%. Everyone one will want to bet him and that's not a great idea. 

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