Afghanistan v Australia Champions Trophy Tips: Can Afghans complete semi-final charge?

Afghanistan v Australia
Friday 28 February, 09:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan v Australia Champions Trophy team news

Afghanistan, as expected, produced a strong performance to knock out England on Wednesday. Big players produced big performances and they will have no fear whatsoever going up against the Australians.

Ibrahim Zadran, about as consistent a rungetter as you can get in this format, shattered records with a brilliant 177. Azmat Omarzai and Mohammad Nabi produced with bat and ball to secure an eight-run win.

That they didn't need anything special from Rashid Khan, who was expensive at nearly 6.5 an over, confirms that they are not one-trick ponies. They should be able to field the same XI again and and have 30 overs of spin at least available.  

Probable XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Atal, Hashmatullah, Rahmat, Omarzai, Naib, Nabi, Rashid, Noor, Farooqi,

Australia need to win to ensure qualification. But they could get through on net run rate with defeat so long as England dish out a hammering to South Africa. In other words, it's a quarter-final.

The washout in Rawalpindi for the South Africa clash has meant Australia have been twiddling their thumbs. It's perhaps not ideal that they've not had a chance to get used to conditions in-game. They beat England convincingly in their only outing and should be unchanged. 

Probable XI:  Short, Head, Smith, Labuschagne, Inglis, Carey, Maxwell, Dwarshuis, Ellis, Zampa, Johnson

Get more Champions Trophy tips in this week's Cricket...Only Bettor podcast

Afghanistan v Australia Champions Trophy pitch report

The Lahore surface looked like a road for England-Australia with 352 posted. And Afghanistan arguably left some out there when scoring 325 against England. The Australia par line, were they to bat first, is likely to be set at around the 320-330 mark.

But we're not going to be gung-ho. With such a quick turnaround between games could this be a used surface? Afghanistan would hope so to give more traction for their spinners. In-play, it might be worth considering a high sell on Aussie runs after the first ten overs in the expectation that Afghanistan can slow them down significantly. 

Afghanistan v Australia Champions Trophy match prediction

Afghanistan were our pick to make the semi-finals at 7/24.50 pre tournament. So the first thing to say is that we're perfectly happy with that bet. And if we hadn't had it, we would be playing them again here to beat Australia at 4.2016/5.

The Afghans represent strong value and, as we have said for each of the matches they have played, the gulf in odds doesn't represent the gap in ability. As they showed against England they are more than competitive and the minimum 30 overs of spin up their sleeves will, rightly, worry Australia.

Australia were humbled by spin in their warm-ups against Sri Lanka and they have had consistent issues. Who can forget in the World Cup when Rashid Khan and Noor Ahmad squeezed Australia in Mumbai only to be undone by possibly the greatest ODI innings ever by Glenn Maxwell?

They might not be so lucky this time. Yes Afghanistan's batters don't like pace. But they only have Spencer Johnson to worry about here. It would be a different story had pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood been available. Afghanistan are the bet. 

Afghanistan v Australia Champions Trophy player bets

We are waiting on wins for consistent performers for Australia. Travis Head at 3/14.00 for top Aussie bat and Adam Zampa at 13/53.60 for top bowler. Both are clear value on two-year win rates. For Afghanistan, Rahmanullah Gurbaz should fancy taking on this Australia attack. He has had a quiet start but now could be his time. The 11/43.75 for a fifty is worth an interest. 

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