West Indies v England Third ODI Tips: Thrill of the chase in decider

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West Indies v England
Wednesday 7 November 18:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

West Indies v England Third ODI team news

West Indies have been pegged back to 1-1 after failing to defend 328 in North Sound. With England 160 for four in the 28th and needing close to ten an over they were in the box seat but the toss bias for the chaser still held.

Alzarri Joseph was rested for that game with Shamar Joseph coming in. Alongside Hayden Seales he was expensive. It would be a surprise if Alzarri didn't come back for one of them.

They may also consider a spot for Hayden Walsh with the surface taking spin in Bridgetown but that could upset their balance. Roston Chase's spin may be required instead.

Probable West Indies XI: King, Lewis, Hope, Carty, Rutherford, Chase, Hetmyer, Motie, Joseph, Forde, Seales/Shamar

England will surely stick with the XI that fought their way back into the series thanks to Liam Livingstone's 124 off 85 balls. The skipper is leading from the front.

Jofra Archer played back-to-back games and after a decent rest between game two and three he should be good to go again. England have wrapped him in cotton wool but at some stage he will need to have his body tested.

It wouldn't be a bad idea if England did think about sorting leaky bowling, though. Rehan Ahmed for Dan Mousley is an option. Reece Topley for an expensive Saqib Mahmood maybe. England used nine bowlers in game two which suggests a chaotic approach.

Possible England XI: Salt, Jacks, Cox, Livingstone, Bethell, S Curran, Mousley, J Overton, Rashid, Saqib/Topley

West Indies v England Third ODI pitch report

There have been 14 results in Bridgetown under lights in ODI. Nine have been won by chaser. That's a win rate of 64%. That's a significant trend. Likewise for bowlers dominating. 301 and 212 are the highest first-innings scores in the last eight. The first-innings par line seems to be on the button, though, with unders 260.5 the early quote. Tt would not have been reasonable to have a chance to go unders at 10 or 15 higher considering the runs in game two.

West Indies v England Third ODI match prediction

There is not much to choose between these two teams. It was perhaps no coincidence that the North Sound bias for the chaser split them in the two matches so far. With the toss crucial again at Bridgetown it could make all the difference again.

There are arguments that West Indies experience will trump England's ingenues in a pressure game. But these two have more that unites them than divides them. For example, both look leaky with the ball.

Pre-toss, then, West indies could be considered value at 2.166/5 but that will quickly be a mug bet if the toss goes against them. On a potentially tricky batting surface, a wet ball under lights should be a significant advantage and backing the chaser blind could be the best strategy. We don't expect the match odds market to be hugely impacted by the flip but we'll look from 1.9010/11 in-play.

West Indies v England Third ODI T20 player bets

There are no win rates to get stuck into here after Shai Hope copped after a long wait. Keacy Carty is also a swerve after a first-innings fifty and a cut from 6s to 9/25.50. Instead we're looking at wrong prices in terms of ability. Step forward Roston Chase at 18/119.00 and Gudakesh Motie at 50/151.00. If we're right about a low-scoring game 40-odd might win this market. There is no way Chase is as big. He is a proper batter and this surface could be perfect for his style.

Livingstone is 7/24.50 for another top-bat win for England. There's little else to get excited about for the visitors. With the ball, Motie should be shorter than 3/14.00. There are signs of spin being key with Akeal Hosein taking 11 in 5 and Walsh 9 in 5.

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