Pakistan v England Third Test Tips: Bat first and win the series in Pindi

• Pitch has been artificially dried to break up

• Batting first a major advantage

• England the value in-play

• Series at 1-1 in decider

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Pakistan v England
Thursday 24 October 06:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pakistan v England Third Test team news

Pakistan made a huge gamble in Mulktan by re-using the same pitch. It paid off as Sajid Khan and Noman Ali took all 20 England wickets as they bowled last on a worn surface.

They have been desperately trying to re-create similar conditions in Rawalpindi to aid their spinners. But whether they truly believe Pindi will turn may be revealed when they name their XI. Leggie Zahid Mahmood didn't take a wicket in game two, a black mark on his career.

Could they cover more bases by picking a seamer in his place, either Mohammad Ali or leftie Mir Hamza? They would still have extra spin coverage in the form of Salman Agha and Kamran Ghulam

Possible Pakistan XI: Shafique, Ayub, Masood, Ghulam, Shakeel, Rizwan, Salman, Jamal, Noman, Sajid, Hamza/Ali

England have nailed their colours to the mast. They expect a tuner with Rehan Ahmed named in their team alongside fellow spinners Jack Leach and Shoaib Bashir. Gus Atkinson and Ben Stokes are the only seam options. Brydon Carse and Matt Potts have been left out.

Ahmed has 18 wickets in four Tests, all played in the Asian sub-continent. He made his debut in karachi and took seven wickets.

With the bat there remains concern over Ollie Pope's form. After a lean series he is under pressure again.

England XI: Duckett, Crawley, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Smith, Atkinson, Ahmed, Leach, Bashir

Pakistan v England Third Test pitch report

Rawalpindi has, historically, not been a turning wicket. In an effort to change that the groundtsaff have raked the surface and deployed industrial fans and heaters to dry out the surface. The aim is to make it break up by the third and fourth dig.

Both Stokes and Harry Brook have said that it will turn after a couple of days and should be reasonably flat early on. But we are wary about expecting monster scores. England under Bazball have been a reliable short in-play for under 450.

A good strategy to deploy on the runs market is to go unders after a 100-run partnership. This could be the sort of surface that makes it hard for the incoming batter to settle. Collapses incoming. For the third and fourth innings going under 240 and 200 on innings runs (if the match situatiuon allows, of course) is the way to play.

Pakistan v England Third Test match prediction

Pakistan are 2.6413/8, England 2.01/1 and the draw is 7.6013/2. The first thing to say it would be insanity to be betting before the toss. Make no mistake this is a contest which will be won the team batting first.

That means the price will be shaved off both teams' prices. England at odds-on away from home batting first isn't a bet which screams value but anything in play from 2.206/5 and you can go for it. Pakistan are far from shabby batting first at around that 2.407/5 mark.

It would be a major surprise if a total of around 200 was chaseable in the fourth innings on this pitch.

The draw price will also be of interest. If we're right about first-innings runs then it could start to shorten. It is possible that everything looks pretty mundane midway through day three by which time the stalemate could have come into around 3.505/2. That offers the chance for a trade. Add 50% to the original stake on the lay button.

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