Pakistan v England Third Test Player Tips: Root a second-dig marvel

• Pope underrated at 7/18.00

• Root a second-innings follow

• Leach's win-rate record

• Aamer Jamal eyecatching

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Pakistan v England
Thursday 24 October 06:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Top England first-innings runscorer

Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope are 6/17.00 and 7/18.00 for the third Test top bat honours for England in first-innings. We thought they were value at the 6/17.00 the pair so it would be odd to have a change of opinion now.

The Rawalpindi surface is expected to be pretty flat and true in first innings. That should boost the pair's chances of runs in the opening slot and No 3 respectively. The chance to get in and settled when the wicket is at its best could be a major advantage.

Crawley, whose weakness is outside off to a moving ball, should have few fears about seam and swing. Pope can be a poor starter but his 196 in Hyderabad in January suggests he has the tools to do well in these conditions.

What is most attractive about the twin bets are the respective win rates. Both Crawley and Pope win more often than the odds suggest with Crawley at 16.7% and Pope at 20.8%. The 6/17.00 is implied probability of 14.3% and 7/18.00 at 12.5%. Sportsbook have clearly taken a strong view on Pope.

There isn't a huge amount to beat in terms of win rates. Joe Root is a consistent swerve in first-innings. But not in the second. Prepare to have a gamble on him for second-innings honours at around 3/14.00.

Root has a win rate of 38% second time around. Why such a big descrapancy from the first (11.11%)? As stated before, Root's strike rate is one of the lowest in the top six in first-innings under Bazball which means that he struggles to score quickly enough.

The first Test in Multan was a prime example. He made 262 and got beat by Harry brook's 317. The respective strike rates were 69 and 98.

But on a wearing surface in the second, it is not scoring rate that counts. It is technique. And Root is by far and the away England's best technician. That could prove crucial in 'Pindi on a difficult surface. Root was 7/24.50 for the first-innings and we don't expect him to go off much shorter than 3/14.00 so that would be our starting point in-play.

Top England first-innings bowler

After two wins on top bowler in first-innings for England in the series, Jack Leach will be all the rage to complete the hat-trick at 16/54.20 with Sportsbook in game three.

Is it value? On win rate it would appear so. Leach has five wins in 15 in the first-innings in Asia, a rate of 33%. That's almost ten points in our favour.

There is a worry with such a gamble, however. Leach has been outbowled in the past in the study sample by the junior member: see Joe Root, Moeen Ali, Will Jacks and Dom Bess.

Root, therefore, stands out at a big 17/29.50. A dead heat win on runs conceded could be possible with England able to bowl four spinners. A cheap two for 30-odd might be enough.

Top Pakistan runscorer

There is no Pakistan batter in either first- or second-innings incorrectly priced in terms of how often they win. So the top bat market is not one which we should be rushing to get involved in.

Reasonable pointers for the first knock include Saud Shakeel and Mohammad Rizwan notching tons in the Test against Bangladesh at the venue in August. Shakeel is 9/25.50 with Sportsbook and Rizwan 9/25.50.

There may be an angle on the swashbuckling Aamer Jamal in the second when 30 or 40 could win it. We should get late teens on the Betfair Exchange. Sportsbook may be around 13/114.00 so that would be the minimum price to take in-play.

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