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Tuesday 20 October, 09.00
TV: Sky Sports
Pakistan v England ODI team news
Pakistan have tuned up nicely for their big test of the tri-series. They were solid in defeating Sri Lanka on Sunday and left room for improvement.
Salman Agha notched an impressive ton just as they were coming under a little pressure at 118 for four. The pacers ensured Sri Lanka never got up in the chase of 268, getting their act together in time with the visitors well set.
There wasn't a wicket for a spinner. Mind you, only 11 overs of tweak were bowled, which was a surprise with Abrar Ahmed and Sufiyan Moqim both left out.
It would be a surprise if Pakistan ignored one or both spinners again as they surely need a point of difference against England, who would be delighted to face a pace test.
Probable XI: Ayub, Fakhar, Baig, Babar, Agha, Hasan, Minhas, Faheem, Afridi, Naseem, Rauf
England are almost at full strength with Jofra Archer rested. But the pace battery is in place with Josh Tongue, Gus Atkinson and Sonny Baker included. The latter may miss out for game one in a rotation policy.
Selection is likely to focus on whether the pitch will spin, although Pakistan may have already answered any questions in that regard. Liam Dawson would probably come in for Sam Curran if they felt the surface would turn.
Possible XI: Duckett, Banton, Root, Brook, Cox, Jacks, S Curran, J Overton, Atkinson, Rashid, Tongue
Pakistan v England ODI pitch report
Pakistan busted a solid trend for the sides chasing in night games at Rawalpindi in the first match of the tri-series. The visitors became only the second team in the last eight not to win batting last. But Sri Lanka should have taken the win with 55 needed from the last seven overs with five wickets left.
It served as a reminder that the toss is important and the wicket holds true. We expect a fresh pitch to be used.
More than 300 runs is well within the grasp of the team batting first and should be considered a must. A total of 336 has been chased there and 288 was easily breached while Sri Lanka came within seven of getting 299 last year.
The price that immediately leaps from the Betfair Sportsbook coupon is the over 268.5 on England total runs for the match. Batting first England total runs should be at least 25 more and a target of 270-odd would be pretty modest from the hosts.
Back England over 268.5 match runs
Pakistan v England ODI match prediction
The toss, then, is crucial. So clearly England, at this stage, cannot be considered as value at 8/151.53 with Betfaur Sportsbook. It's not going to take much, however, in-play to give us a spark.
In an ideal world England would bowl first with that bias onside. Any semblance of a partnership for Pakistan and we could see England getting up to that 1.834/5 point on the Betfair Exchange. That's the entry point.
Alternatively, waiting to see what Pakistan set is a strategy. Backing England to get anything up to 330 is definitely on. As stated, Pakistan need to carefully consider whether they go heavy on pace. The visitors should be able to pick that attack off with relative ease. Not so with Abrar or Moqim. England are nervous against quality spin.
If England bat first, they should bust more than 300 with the caveat discussed. Despite the toss bias, Pakistan are unlikely to be an in-play option. There is no evidence they have the batting power to live with England on a good track.
Pakistan v England ODI player tips
Joe Root is overdue a top-bat win in this format. He had a disappointing summer for his backers. Big scores eluded him in the final three matches, the ODIs against Sri Lanka. Likewise in the three-Test series against the same.
Ruling out some sort of crisis is wise. Indeed, betting Root for runs here is probably the one bet which covers whatever Pakistan do with their bowling attack.
A master playing spin (and with an excellent record in the Asian sub-continent), Root is fair at 3/14.00. An honourable mention, though, to Harry Brook at 10/34.33 who loves playing Pakistan.
At some stage we would want to be trying out the big prices on Faheem Ashraf to top score for Pakistan. But this batting wicket might be a little too good.
Back Joe Root top England bat