India v West Indies fifth T20 Tips: Back the side batting second in Bengaluru blitz

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Saturday 17 October, 14:30
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India v West Indies fifth T20 team news

India may have to give consideration to finding some variety in attack with the series tied at 2-2. Kuldeep Yadav or Ravi Bishnoi must surely be in the conversation. Moving away from a specialist spinner hasn't worked out.

The reason given by India for no Kuldeep is short boundaries. It doesn't appear that the pacers have fared any better in keeping the fours and sixes count down, though. Given Kuldeep's strong record against West Indies it is a surprise he has been jettisoned so early.

One player who could make way for one of the spinners is Arshdeep Singh. He took a blow on the bicep when batting. If not, India will go with three pacers again plus Nitish Kumar Reddy's medium pace and Axar Patel.

Possible XI: Samson, Abhishek, Ishan, Shreyas, Tilak, Dhir, Reddy, Axar, Prince, Mayank, Arshdeep

West Indies are putting up a strong fight and are expected to go with the same XI that delivered the equaliser in Hyderabad. That means no Amir Jangoo with Jewel Andrew given another chance in the opening slot alongside Shai Hope. Andrew replaced Kamil Pooran the game after Pooran had delivered a score.

It is true West indies are reliant on Hope. His brilliant century crafted the win in game four. Someone may have to step up with more than a supporting role. Rovman Powell has had a quiet series.

But the batting is deep with Gudakesh Motie at No 10. Romario Shepherd is back in the XI. Roston Chase will be used as floater in the batting order.

Probable XI: Hope, Andrew, Hetmyer, Powell, Rutherford, Shepherd, Chase, Springer, Paul, Motie, Shamar

India v West Indies fifth T20 pitch report 

Bengaluru has been another reliable batting paradise in IPL. In the last two years there have been nine night matches with a runs per over of 9.8. In four of those matches, both teams to score 200 has landed four times. The markets are wise, though, to the run-laden nature of the series and Sportsbook's 11/102.11 that it wins again couldn't be described as a wrong price.

Indeed, there is a complication for this contest. The weather forecast for Bengaluru is poor and it would be a surprise if there was not a reduction in overs. There is at least a 60% chance of rain throughout the playing time.

The smart call, then, would be to factor in overs reductions and go under 213.5 first-innings runs. Betfair Sportsbook rules stipulate there would have to be a minimum of 16 overs for bets to stand.

India v West Indies fifth T20 match prediction 

The chaser has been bang in the game in each of the four matches so far, winning two. India started well in pursuit of 247 and went favourites in play last time. Windies also had a shout going after 223 to lose by 14 in Indore.

It would be a good strategy to stick with the side batting second, taking bigger odds at the break. Even with overs reduced the chaser could be going after ten an over or more which the market has to respect.

There is also a toss bias onside. Six of the nine night matches in the study sample have been won by the side batting second. If India were to bat second we would hope for close to even money with another strong target set by the visitors.

India v West Indies fifth T20 player tips 

Hope has been boosted to 5/23.50 for top West indies bat by Sportsbook after scores of 102, 5, 102 and 52. He also came into the series off the back of an unbeaten 162 in the final ODI. Hope is in the form of his life but it might be too much to expect he delivers again.

The nature of T20 opening means aggression and pressure to score quickly inevitably increases the chance of a mistake. It can feel like chasing the runs by just backing the same guy who has been winning consistently. Batting, in whatever format, is more often than not about failure.

We are still waiting on Ishan Kishan to deliver the big score that his top-bat win rate suggests he is more than capable of. We were on him for a 50 last time. The ploy has always been to focus on milestone betting on batting wickets because there's nothing worse than your man delivering only to be pipped by a bigger score. Take the 7/42.75 that he scores 40.

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