South Africa v Australia second Test Tips: Australia the bet as hosts hit panic button

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Sunday 18 October, 09.00
TV: Sky Sports

South Africa v Australia second Test team news

South Africa have immediately made changes following the heavy defeat in the first Test. Tristan Stubbs and Kyle Verreynne, the wicketkeeper, have been dropped.

Stubbs' place in the squad has gone to Matthew Breetzke and he could slot into the opening role. With no Verreynne, Ryan Rickletwon is set to take the gloves, perhaps forcing a move into the middle order. Tony de Zorzi, who could be considered a specialist opener, is struggling for fitness. Marques Ackerman has been called up and could go straight into the middle order.

There has also been a scare over Aiden Markram. He did not travel with the squad from Durban and missed training due to personal reasons.

The big call will be over Kagiso Rabada's fitness. He hasn't bowled since May but with the series on the line it is now or never. With Rabada likely to come back South Africa could jettison one of their two spinners on the most spin-friendly surface in South Africa.

Possible XI: Markram, Breetzke, Bedingham, Bavuma, Ackerman, Rickleton, Mulder, Jansen, Harmer/Maharaj, Rabada, Nortje

Australia should have no reason to change a winning team, particularly as all-rounder Cameron Green looks increasingly unlikely to be fit.

Green netted with gentle throwdowns and did catching work in preparation post Durban but nothing more strenuous. He would only play as a batter anyway.

It means Nic Maddinson is set to continue in the opening role with Matt Renshaw at No 5.

The only possible tweak might be to find room for Cooper Connolly if Australia feel they need an extra spin option. That would put Marnus Labuschagne in a vulnerable spot. Labuschagne's form remains non-existent while there also worries over Travis Head's returns away from home.

Probable XI: Maddinson, Head, Labuschagne, Smith, Renshaw, Carey, Webster, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

South Africa v Australia second Test pitch report 

There have been only two Tests in five years at St George's Park and seven in ten. It's not much of a study sample to work with unfortunately. The data from the larger span shows a first-innings runs average per wicket dropping from 35 to 24 in the fourth. This fits with the reputation of being a spin-friendly ground.

Indeed, in the last Test in 2024 when Sri Lanka were beaten, there were five-fers for spinners in the third- and fourth-innings. Bangladesh were destroyed by spin in the 2022 Test with 15 of the 20 wickets falling to Simon Harmer and Keshav Maharaj.

In three games domestically in the most recent season there were two score of more than 300 in eight all-out totals with spinners once again to the fore.

With the suspicion, then, that batting could be tricky a poor weather forecast does not boost the batters either. It could well be that with rain around for the first one-and-a-half days seam and swing could be prevalent with spin then taking over. No century in the match has immediate appeal at 9/43.25.

On the Exchange, the strategy is to be playing unders. We are far from convinced about either of these batting units. Cheap lays at under 220-250 could be the way to go in the first dig. And any semblance of a partnership (50-plus) should alert one to start looking at par line lays. Collapses are in the frame.

South Africa v Australia second Test match prediction 

We are worried about South Africa. One game in and one game down, they already risk throwing the baby out of the bath water, deviating from tried and trusted platers and a clear plan.

South Africa didn't lose the first Test because of Stubbs or Verreynne. Nor did they lose because they picked two spinners. They just lacked the pace potency with the ball to finish off Australia when they had them under the pump. That could change with Rabada available.

But the potential to leave out one of Harmer and Maharaj sets alarm bells ringing. Given the history and reputation of the surface, this is probably the one ground that gives the hosts a significant advantage. They have two superb spinners, Australia have one.

If they waste that opportunity when the teams are announced, Australia are the bet. The odds won't react to the line-up. On the Exchange Australia are 2.608/5 and that is a very good price. It could be better though. With rain on day one the draw price should shorten significantly so wait until the first ball. We'll try to place an order for 3.002/1 now.

South Africa v Australia second Test player tips 

Mitchell Starc had a quiet first game in Durban but he could roar back into form here. The moisture and cloud cover should please him and his record in the first-innings is excellent. Starc has won the top bowler market 31% of the time so the 12/53.40 from Betfair Sportsbook gives us an edge. On implied probability that is 29.4%. It's not massive but big enough to keep us keen.

Sticking to the theme of batting being tough and these two sides struggling to convince, lower-order winners on top bat have appeal. Maharaj at 45s makes sense for the hosts while Pat Cummins and Starc again at 33s are worth small change.

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