Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI tips: upset on the cards if Sri Lanka chase

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Sunday 18 October, 09.00
TV: Sky Sports

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI team news

Pakistan have overhauled their T20 batting impressively in recent months, putting faith in fearless hitters. A bit of that may not go amiss as they look to build a side capable of challenging for next year's World Cup.

But we will have to wait to see the return of Maaz Sadaqat in this format. He has not been included in the squad for the tri-series. Instead, Pakistan go with old faithfuls such as Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman and Salman Agha. All have a place, of course, but a sprinkling of aggression would not have been the worst idea. Maaz at No 3 in time perhaps?

It could be argued that Saim Ayub's return is welcome. He is back for his first ODI since November last year. He could open the batting with Fakhar.

With the ball, Shaheen Shah Afridi, the skip, has good pace options alongside. Two from Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah and Riazullah feels potent. They could pick two spinners in Abrar Ahmed and Sufiyan Moqim if they think the pitch spins.

Possible XI: Fakhar, Ayub, Babar, Ghouri, Hasan, Agha, Arafat, Afridi, Naseem, Rauf, Abrar/Moqim

Sri Lanka have recalled opening batting Avishka Fernando. He is in line for his first ODI since February 2025 and could form a partnership up top with Pathnum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Kamindu Mendis or Kamil Mishara. Charith Asalanka is the man to miss out.

Nissanka has been struggling with a hamstring injury so it could be that Sri Lanka give him extra time to be 100% fit.

There is no Wanindu Hasaranga who is injured (again). Sachindu Colombage, who impressed on tour against England, could be in the race for a spinner role alongside Maheesh Theekshana. Dunith Wellalage and Dasun Shanaka may be locked in a battle for an all-rounder slot. If Sri Lanka feel the pitch takes spin, the former may get the nod.

Possible XI: Avishka, Mishara, Kusal, Kamindu, Rathnayake, Liyanage, Wellalage/Shanaka, Colombage/Theekshana, Asitha, Madushanka, Malinga

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI pitch report 

The first three matches in the tri-series, which also involves England, are in Rawalpindi. All are day-night. There have been seven ODI under lights in the last five years, returning an average run rate of 5.7. But six have been won by the side batting second. That's a hefty bias.

Does the trend hold up over the longer study period? Well, it's seven from the last 10 and 13 from 19 (excluding a tie) in all time matches.

The highest score in the last seven games batting first has been 336. This was by New Zealand in 2023 and was comfortably chased. It appears that dew could well be a factor as 288 has been chased twice. Betfair Sportsbook's first-innings over/under mark is 276.5. Playing overs would have won four times in the study.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI match prediction 

Betfair Sportsbook have Pakistan hot favourites at 2/51.40 for this one with Sri Lanka 2/13.00. Regular readers of these columns will know that there is a golden rules of cricket betting in play here: never bet Pakistan at significant odds-against.

Throw in a toss bias and it would be a symptom of something gravely serious to consider the home team as a value wager.

There is nothing wrong with waiting until the toss and hoping that the flip not only goes the way of Sri Lanka, but they make the right choice. We do not expect the market to move off the back of the toss. It almost never does all around the world when long-studied biases are in action.

An alternative is to wait until the break. We would be happy to be taking prices on the Exchange on either side to be going after 280-310 in a chase.

The reason for Pakistan's short price is probably the head-to-head record. Pakistan have won four of the last five (three of them easily) but we have to reckon conditions are a leveller here.

Pakistan v Sri Lanka ODI player tips 

Babar's days as a T20 player are almost certainly over at international level but there is nothing wrong with him being asked to deliver for us in this format. He remains a class act. In November last year Babar was unbeaten on 102 against Sri Lanka on this ground. The omens are good.

The 5/42.25 with Betfair Sportsbook that he notches a serene 50 might be a tempting offer.

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