New Zealand v England Third T20 tips: Back Buttler and Henry to deliver wins

• England lead series 1-0 

• Rain could mean loss of overs
• Eden Park pitch one for runs usually

• Time for a Buttler special

• Henry due top bowler win

New Zealand v England
Thursday 23 October, 07:15
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v England third T20 team news

New Zealand need to find a way to add some muscle to their batting to counter England's batting power. Bevon Jacobs replacing Daryl Mitchell is one option. They have at least dispensed with Devon Conway up top, opening with Tim Seifert and Tim Robinson.

Zak Foulkes for Kyle Jamieson might also work. Anothjer option is to look at ways to counter England with the ball. Drafting Ish Spdhi into the squad to take pace off might be smart but tht there has been no movement on that front.

Possible New Zealand XI: Seifert, Robinson, Ravindra, Chapman,  Jacobs, Bracewell, Neesham, Foulkes, Santner, Henry, Duffy

England have brought Zak Crawley on this tour, presumably to get him tuned up for the Ashes. It would be slightly odd, given that he is not included in the ODI series, if he were not to be given a hit here.

Replacing Jordan Cox would make a lot of sense and he could bat as high as No 3. Jamie Overton might come in for Brydon carse and Rehan Ahmed for Liam Dawson if England feel they should also be given a chance. Certainly the continued underuse of Rehan is beginning to look pointed. 

Possible England XI: Buttler, Salt, Crawley, Brook, Bethell, Banton, S Curran, Carse, Dawson, Rashid, L Wood

New Zealand v England third T20 pitch report

Eden Park has been a bit of a road in T20i. The average score in first-innings in the last ten is 173 and the average number of sixes per game is 17.2. But before we get excited, a weather forecast check is required. There is at least a 60% chance of rain an hour after the start so it would be a surprise if there were not interruptions and a reduction in overs.

Sportsbook require at least 80% of the overs (16) in either innings otherwise total runs and sixes bets are void. It therefore seems like folly to be playing overs. England's total match runs at 186.5 looked cheap in the extreme when it went up on Monday and sixes were quoated at over/under 17.5. Indeed, it may even now be a gamble to bet on the rain and short that mark at 10/111.91.

New Zealand v England third T20 match prediction

New Zealand need some sort of help from conditions to bridge the power gap. They were blown away in game two when they had no answers to England's hitting. They conceded a massive 236 to go down by 65 runs. Could the Auckland rain do that?

Possibly. Overcast conditions and moisture could mean they find the edge more and batters might be less inclined to tee off. And a reduction in overs would certainly give England less time to exert their dominance.

The hosts are therefore not the worst bet in the world at 2.427/5 on the Betfair Exchange. A caveat might be that they bat first, though, because their price could be chunkier at the break by some margin if seam and swing has not assisted them.

New Zealand v England third T20 player bets

Jos Buttler is overdue a top-bat win for England in this format and it could be that rain and overs reduction helps us in that regard. Sportsbook require ten overs to be bowled and if we do lose time we would much rather be on an opener to do the business. And Buttler remains one of the best around even if his partner Phil Salt is taking most of the plaudits these days. The former skip has a win rate of 29% which is bang on the 12/53.40 offered by Sportsbook. 

Another overdue a win is Matt Henry for most New Zealand wickets. He has been badly let down by team-mates dropping catches so despite a blank last time out, his form cannot be questioned. Have a bit of the 11/43.75. 

Now read Ed's Ultimate Guide to The Ashes