England v West Indies First T20 Tips: Hosts not as hot as market says

• England hot favourites to take 1-0 lead

• But no evidence that the hosts should be such skinny odds

• Rain at the Riverside may keep bowlers keen

• Windies big guns return to boost hopes

• Buttler, Powell and Shepherd players to watch

England v West Indies
Friday 6 June, 18.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v West Indies First T20 team news

England are buzzing after a clean sweep in the ODI series suggested they have rediscovered their white-ball mojo. But just as they needed to show marked improvement in that format, the same is true in T20. Their 12-month record is one of even money chances over 18 matches.

The selection dilemma may focus on where Will Jacks bats. He was given a finisher role in the ODI success but batted at No 3 at times for Mumbai Indians in IPL. He may slot in between Harry Brook and Jacob Bethell. Or he could open in the absence of Phil Salt, who is on paternity leave. Jamie Smith has been added to the squad as cover but original pick Tom Banton should be ahead of him. 

The hosts must also decide whether to play three proper pacers or two with an extra spinner. If it's the former, Luke Wood plays. Otherwise Rehan Ahmed and Liam Dawson are in contention.

Possible England XI: Banton, Duckett, Buttler, Brook, Jacks, Bethell, J Overton, Rashid, L Wood, Potts, Mahmood

West Indies have decided to rest Nic Pooran but they have still assembled a stellar group. Andre Russell, Rovman Powell, Romario Shepherd and Akeal Hosein have been added to the group.

They bat dangerously and deep. Who bats at No 3 in the absence of Pooran, though, will be interesting. They could gamble and go for Gudakesh Motie. More likely it will be between Evin Lewis and Johnson Charles. 

Possible WI XI: King, Hope, Charles/Lewis, Rutherford, Powell, Russell, Shepherd, Motie, Akeal, Forde, Joseph

England v West Indies First T20 pitch report

The weather forecast for Chester-le-Street on gameday is poor. But rain is currently expected to clear for the start time. Whether the toss will be delayed due to a mopping up operation is possible so we could get a slight reduction in overs.

Grey skies and moisture immediately lend to the idea that bowlers do well. Likewise the pitch history. There have been only five scores of more than 165 in first-innings in floodlight matches (15) in the last three years. The runs per over in that period in first dig is 8.33.

Sportsbook's total runs markets for either team has appeal, then with England a potential wager at unders 186.5 at 5/61.84 and West indies 170.5 at the same. Shorting on the former has won 16 from the last 18 and 11 of the last 18 on the latter. Sportsbook require 16 overs for bets to stand.

England v West Indies First T20 match prediction

England are 1.4840/85 with West Indies 3.002/1. These are prices which seem to have been influenced more by the recent ODI series than the more relevant form for the format. In that regard there is little to choose between the teams.

They have almost identical win rates over the last 12 months, 0.01 runs separate England ahead of the Windies in terms of batting average but the visitors have greater control with the ball returning an economy rate of 8.48 compared to England's 9. West Indies also average more sixes per game, which some would argue is the most important metric of all.

The upshot from a betting perspective, then, is that West Indies, in their best format, are underrated and would warrant support at inflated odds. 

England v West Indies Third ODI player bets

The win rates are pretty clear on who warrants support on the top-bat and bowler markets for this contest. First off, for England runs Jos Buttler holds plenty of appeal to outscore his team-mates. He is the right favourite at 11/43.75 due to a win rate of 35% on 12-month numbers (17 matches). The odds are implied probability of 26.7%.

For West Indies Rovman Powell catches the eye. He has an excellent hit rate of 31.5% so Sportsbook's 6/17.00 has appeal. What goes against Powell is that he hasn't had a hit since April 29 so he might be one to revisit once the series is underway. Motie is not the worst gamble at 33s as discussed above. 

Shepherd, fresh from IPL glory, is West Indies' most important bowler. He returns a massive 47% of the time on top bowler so Sportsbook's 4/15.00 has to be of interest. 

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