England v Sri Lanka Third Test Tips: Brook and Woakes to deliver

• Could Oval surface help visitors

• Hull to debut for England

• Runs shorts a clear strategy

• Brook remains value for top bat

England v Sri Lanka
Friday 6 September 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v Sri Lanka Third Test team news

England have named their XI already and they have decided to test bench strength in a dead rubber. Matt Potts is out with lanky pacer Josh Hull in for a debut.

Hull is 6ft 7in and left-arm. He has played only ten first-class matches. With an average of 63 for his 16 wickets it is a pick purely on appearance and potential.

Shape and swing has actually been the more subtle way to take wickets at The Oval in the last five years instead of a battering-ram which England hope Hull will be.

Batting may not be as easy as many expect. Witness Joe Root's average of 36 in the last five. Ollie Pope, Gus Atkinson and Jamie Smith are on their home ground.

Named XI: Duckett, Lawrence, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes, Atkinson, Stone, Bashir, Hull

Sri Lanka could shuffle their pack again as they search for a combination that can give them a foothold in the final two innings. They were disappointing at Lord' as they failed to improve on an encouraging effort in the first match.

The first move could be a return for experienced batter Kusal Mendis. Dropping Nishan Madushka is an option considering the opener has proven hopeless against the moving ball. Pathum Nissanka would retain his spot but move up to open.

With the ball Kasun Rajitha, a veteran pacer, must be in contention while spinner Jeffrey Vandersay may also get a game. Asitha Fernando is the top wicket-taker in the series.

Probable XI: Nissanka, Karunaratne, Kusal, Mathews, Chandimal, Dhananjaya, Kamindu, Ratanayake, Jayasuriya, Rajitha, Asitha

England v Sri Lanka Third Test Pitch report

The Oval has a reputation historically for big runs and helping spin. Neither are particularly justified. Of 20 all-out scores in Championship cricket (and one declaration) 13 have been under 350. There has been only one score of more than 300 in the last six Tests in all first team innings. As for spin, there ave been nine wickets to England tweaked in five years.

We do expect some movement in the air and off the pitch. That could be exacerbated by some poor weather with rain forecast for day one. Otherwise there should be more than enough time to get a full game.

Shorting both teams for runs, then, is a strong option. England to go under 400 is reliably consistent while we are looking at going under 270 for the visitors. at around 1.834/5 one the market appears.

England v Sri Lanka Third Test prediction

Sri Lanka need a leveller in this series now having been outclassed at Lord's. Could London weather and a slightly helpful Kennington surface be it? Maybe.

But they are not a bet to let run at 8.207/1. We're looking to trade that price into half with 50% of the original stake on the lay button.

The draw price is always of interest for something similar when rain is around. But it can be a fool's errand because such conditions can make batting tricky enough that the game is sped up. The 7.4013/2 will take a dip though if we have a delay on the first morning.

Top England first-innings run scorer

Joe Root is still at 7/24.50 for top England bat after his twin centuries at HQ. He still has a dreadful win rate in the last two years, though. It's at 12.5% and although he always bats with pure class, it isn't advisable that we put faith in him to go back to back. It's also worth noting that he was only a few runs from being pipped by Gus Atkinson.

And yet the value remains with someone who hasn't proved that reliable. Harry Brook may be settling to the mean in terms of his wins as he is at an early stage of his career but Sportsbook's 4/15.00 is at least a boost from the 7/24.50. Brook has looked consistently good at the crease but is the complete opposite of Root.

Root is all about steady accumulation while the flashier bats get on with it. That explains his poor win rate. Brook has all the shots, all the speed but not the stick ability. He does have an 85 on Tests in this ground and there's a big chunk on win rate in our favour.

Top England first-innings wicket-taker

As mentioned earlier this venue is about the subtle art of fast bowling. Stuart Broad, Chris Woakes and Ollie Robinson top the wickets list in the last five years. Woakes, then, with a resurgent career at this level, is the first port of call at 3/14.00 for top England bowler.

He is the same price as Atkinson on home territory but it's not unreasonable to reckon that the former has more skills in his armoury. Woakes has outbowled Atkinson in two Tests this series, winning the market in game one and being pipped by Matt Potts for honours due to runs conceded.

It is fair to reckon that Woakes, 15 victims in three games at The Oval, should be slightly shorter to take the favourite status for this one.

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