England v Sri Lanka First Test Tips: Draw price could head south

• New-look England could be tested

• Run formguide needs to be turned upside down

• Check our top-rated player bets

• Sri Lanka runs a sell in tricky conditions

England v Sri Lanka
Wednesday 21 August, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

England v Sri Lanka First Test team news

England will at least learn something from this series against Sri Lanka. And that has to be a positive.

With no Ben Stokes, Ollie Pope's leadership skills are tested. Can he deliver with the bat under such pressure? Can he adopt Bazball? It is an intriguing subplot. Captains want to play their own way. So whether Pope has his own way or that will have to be ignored is an interesting question. There's no gurantee that Pope will want to be as gung-ho as Stokes.

No James Anderson, of course, means England's bowling unit remains a work in progress. Matty Potts has the opportunity to step up. And it's an early move up the order for Jamie Smith. Dan Lawrence is untried as opener with Zak Crawley also out.

Named XI: Lawrence, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Smith, Woakes, Wood, Atkinson, Potts, Shoaib

Sri Lanka suffered defeat by England Lions in their only warm-up. But they have a clutch of middle-order batters with experience in England.

Angelo Mathews and Dinesh Chandimal are crucial and alongside skipper Dhananjaya de Silva it is not a forlorn hope that they can hold up England. Opener Dimuth Karunaratne has played County for Yorkshire. They each have solid success in either South Africa and New Zealand, too.

It's the bowling that is the big worry. The pace attack looks poor while they would dearly love their spinners to be given any sort of assistance. Something which seems unlikely in this game.

Possible XI: Madushka, Karunaratne, Kusal, Mathews, Chandimal, Dhananjaya, Samarawickrama, Jayasuriya, Lahiru, Rajitha, Asitha/Vishwa

England v Sri Lanka First Test pitch report

The Old Trafford surface can be a cracker to bat on. Five of the last seven first-innings have seen scores bust 350. Australia made 317 last summer and England replied with 592.

Given the inexperienced nature of Sri Lanka's attack in England and its quality, it feels like a surprise if England don't go past 400. That would be a formbuster, though. In just seven of the 27 first-innings in the Stokes era, England have breached that mark. Sri Lanka's bowlers will have to be particularly poor, then. More than 370 has copped ten times. An 'early' declaration has also cost run buyers in the past.

For Sri Lanka they have gone under 220 three times in the last eight first digs outside of Asia. A runs glut against Zimbabwe can probably be discounted. We expect the par line to be around the 240 mark so it seems a fair option to sell, particularly as we can't rule out poor weather making seam and swing more likely. That may have mpact on the match odds.

England v Sri Lanka First Test match prediction

England are 1.3030/100 with Sri Lanka 11.5021/2 and the draw 6.6011/2. It is arguable that England, even though they are not at full-strength could be a little shorter.

Certainly Sri Lanka's price is disappointing. We were expecting something at least in the teens to make our decision a little harder about how to bet.

In that regard, the weather forecast has come to the rescue. Day one could see little play while more showers on day two will surely mean the draw price heads south.

It seems a good option to trade the draw to around 3.002/1. We have two other possible scenarios onside. An England run glut which takes time out of the game. And some semblance of stickability from those Sri Lanka batters. In a tepid betting heat it's not a firecracker of a bet but something to keep us interested. Add 50% to the original stake for an all-green book.

England v Sri Lanka First Test side markets

Micro wins for Sri Lanka may offer a route to value. Keeping England quiet, for example, early on with the bat. Sportsbook go evens that England go under 25.5 off the first five in their first-innings. It's not a bad wager. In our favour are: cloud and moisture, a new England opening partnership and the possibility of the hosts being less aggressive because Stokes is not available.

We're less confident in their own durability with the bat first up. Under 22.5 runs for their first opening partnership could be a cheap win at 5/61.84.

Don't miss expert analysis on the players to bet on in the first Test HERE