England v Pakistan First T20 Tips: Pakistan value to catch hosts cold

Mohammad Rizwan
Rizwan has an incredible win-rate record

Ed Hawkins says the gulf in odds is too great and if the sides can beat the weather in Leeds, Pakistan rate the value...

England v Pakistan
Wednesday 22 May, 18:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v Pakistan First T20 team news

England are going to have to put Jofra Archer's fitness to the test as soon as possible. Well, that's the rational view anyway. So Mark Wood or Reece Topley may sit out. It may also be beneficial to give Tom Hartley a roll because they know all about Adil Rashid. The top order consist of four openers by trade. If this was a franchise criticism for poor balance would be strong. Likewise that they're all right-handed. Moeen Ali could be promoted to break them up. Liam Livingstone may be doubtful with his knee.

Possible XI: Buttler, Salt, Jacks, Bairstow, Brook, Moeen, S Curran, Jordan, Rashid/Hartley, Archer/Wood, Topley

Pakistan have warmed-up with a 2-1 win over Ireland. They've split Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam to find room for Saim Ayub. Azam Khan is a strong hitting addition in the middle-order. Usman Khan, after a destructive PSL, is unfortunate to miss out to Fakhar Zaman, who was desperately poor. Likewise they have four 'openers'. Haris Rauf is coming back to fitness. It's possible he could play alongside three other seamers at the expense of one of the spin options.

Possible XI: Ayub, Rizwan, Babar, Fakhar, Azam Khan, Imad, Iftikhar, Shadab, Afridi, Amir/Rauf, Abbas

England v Pakistan First T20 pitch report

Leeds is a road. Six of the last seven in the Blast busted 170 or more in first innings. Two of those were more than 200. Best-laid plans for IPL-style runs bets are off, however, because of a dreadful weather forecast. Both teams to score 180 at 13/102.30 would have been a bet but for an 80% chance of rain throughout the period of the match. A 20-over par line bet is protected and will be voided if overs are lost.

England v Pakistan First T20 match prediction

England are mighty short at 1.491/2. Pakistan are priced at 3.02/1. That is a gulf in odds which may not ne justified even with a significant leveller in play.

The weather may be likely to have the final say but in such potentially horrible conditions, this could be a wet and wild lottery. Do England fancy facing Shaheen Afridi and co in such grey, moist conditions? Of course not.

Now it could be that Pakistan, if they get onto the field for even a five-over game, struggle horribly themselves against a moving ball. But it is hard not to think that Pakistan are underrated in a splash and bash.

England v Pakistan First T20 Exchange strategy

With such a poor weather forecast it would be remiss not to point out the prices for a completed match. Currently the Exchange has yes at 9.208/1 and no at 1.081/12.

Could we get involved with a lay of the latter at 1.111/9? Only five overs per side would be required for a game and any break or respite in the clouds/rain would see significant change for a trade.

England v Pakistan First T20 player bets

Jonny Bairstow has been boosted to 5/16.00 with Sportsbook for top England bat. He has five wins in his last seven, including three of those from the middle-order. But with overs in short supply Phil Salt (win rate of 27% in the last two years) may be smarter at 7/24.50. Mohammad Rizwan, with an astonishing win rate of 45% in the last two years, is solid at 23/103.30.

With the ball, Mark Wood and Haris Rauf are the right favourites for England and Pakistan respectively. Wood is 3/14.00 and Rauf 21/10. Ten overs are required to played in an innings for top bat and bowler bets to stand.

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