England v New Zealand Third ODI Tips: Kiwis can regain lead

• Kiwis underrated again at 2.789/5

• Weather could play a part

• Phillips a bet at 13/27.50

England v New Zealand
Wednesday 13 September, 12:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v New Zealand Third ODI team news

England levelled the series in Southampton with a come-from-behind success. They may now field an XI closer to their opener against the same opponents when the World Cup begins on 5 October.

That could mean we see Mark Wood instead of Gust Atkinson and Adil Rashid returning for the unlucky David Willey.

It may also be time to start backing the batters selected in the original squad. So Jason Roy could replace Harry Brook whose audition to force his way into the squad has resulted in two failures.

Possible XI: Bairstow, Roy, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Livingstone, Moeen, S Curran, Rashid, Wood, Topley

New Zealand may take a similar approach. What's the point of playing Finn Allen again, particularly after a duck at the Ageas Bowl?

If they agree, Will Young could return to the opening role he will surely play in at the World Cup. In time Kane Williamson should return at No 3 but he's not expected to be fit for action in this series.

Oddly Mark Chapman is in the World Cup squad but not this one. If he is still around the team it's possible he is drafted in. Otherwise Henry Nicholls gets a game.

Pairing spinners Racin Ravindra and Mitchell Santner is smart with the Kiwis clearly keeping one eye on Indian conditions.

Possible XI: Conway, Young, Nicholls, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Ravindra, Santner, Southee, Boult, Henry

England v New Zealand Third ODI pitch report

The run rate for all innings at The Oval since 2019 is a healthy 5.77, suggesting around 290 is the target batting first. In that period there have been four scores of 300 or more. England were skittled for 110 against India at the venue last year as the venue's propensity to help swing bowlers was highlighted.

Overcast conditions may keep bowlers keen. Both teams to score 275 at 15/82.88 would have been a wager had we not spotted a forecast with rain due in the second-innings. Any innings reduced by more than 10 overs make the wager void, though.

England v New Zealand Third ODI match odds

England are 1.558/15 with New Zealand 2.789/5. As we have said consistently, that's a chunky old gap between two sides who appear to be well-matched. Don't forget England are only world champions instead of the Kiwis because of an obscure, ridiculous rule which was immeditaely rescinded.

New Zealand gave England a lesson in game one in Cardiff and are probably kicking themselves they didn't make it 2-0 after their pacers ripped through England's top order in Southampton.

There's just no evidence yet that England should be as skinny in this series so the visitors rate a sensible wager and the hosts do not.

In all formats of the game, England and New Zealand routinely engage in ding-dong affairs. In the last five years England have 11 wins across the spectrum to New Zealand's nine with two ties.

England v New Zealand Third ODI player bets

Will Young remains a win-rate wager with Sportsbook at 4/15.00. If he does return to open we're slightly concerned he's more vulnerable to the new ball but it's clear value. Similarly on win rate, Glenn Phillips is too big at 13/27.50 with a 5.4% swing in our favour versus implied probability.

For England, Jos Buttler has a 30% win rate in the last two years so the 5/16.00 with Sportsbook that he top scores is a wrong price.

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