BMW PGA Championship: Kim is the call for a Wentworth win

• GIR the key stat at Wentworth

• Irish Open form a big plus

• Perfect place for off the pace winners

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Tournament History

Originally known as the British PGA Championship and first staged in 1955, the BMW PGA Championship has been the DP World Tour's flagship event since its inception in 1972.

The tournament used to be staged in May but when the US PGA Championship moved to May in 2019, the DP World Tour made the sensible decision to move the BMW PGA to an autumnal slot and it worked. The quality of the field improved immediately.

Following the Abu Dhabi Championship and the Dubai Desert Classic in January and the Scottish Open in July, the BMW PGA Championship is the fourth of five Rolex Series events to be staged this year, with the final one - the DP World Tour Championship - being staged in two months' time.

Venue

Wentworth (West Course), Surrey, England

Course Details

Par 72 - 7,267 yards
Stroke Index in 2022 - 70.22

Designed by Harry Colt and opened in 1926, the West Course has undergone a series of alterations in recent years, under the supervision of Ernie Els.

All the greens were remodelled in 2009/10 and the par 5 finishing hole was radically changed. At the mercy of modern equipment, the old 18th was an almost given birdie and a great eagle chance but now, with a large stream snaking its way in front of the green, it's a stunning risk/reward finishing hole.

Wentworth is a tight, fairly flat, tree-lined heathland course with tricky-to-read greens that were all changed before the 2017 renewal. The bentgrass/poa unua blend was replaced with pure bentgrass to get a truer and faster roll and a brand-new sub-air system was installed throughout the course to help keep the greens fast and dry.

In addition to the changes made to the greens, the bunkering throughout the course was changed to try and restore the course closer to its original Harry Colt ethos. It was felt that previous reworks had produced bunkering that was just too deep and not in keeping with the original design philosophy.

Wentworth used to stage the now defunct Volvo World Match Play at this time of year so high-class autumnal golf at Surrey's finest is nothing new.

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Weather Forecast

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TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 8:30 on Thursday

Last Eight Winners with Pre-event Prices

• 2022 - Shane Lowry -17 (54-holes) 19.018/1
• 2021 - Billy Horschel -19 36.035/1
• 2020 - Tyrrell Hatton -19 22.021/1
• 2019 - Danny Willett -20 80.079/1
• 2018 - Francesco Molinari -17 22.021/1
• 2017 - Alex Noren -11 22.021/1
• 2016 - Chris Wood -9 70.069/1
• 2015 -Byeong-Hun An -21 180.0179/1

What Will it Take to Win?

In the last ten years we've seen winners rank first (Byeong-Hun An 2015) and 70^th for Driving Distance (Matteo Manassero 2013) and as high as fourth and as low as 47^th for Driving Accuracy.

Looking at last year's edition, Thomas Detry finished tied for fifth ranking seventh for DD and 71^st for DA and Soren Kjeldsen finished alongside him ranking eighth for DA and only 69^th for DD so I really don't think we can worry about the driving metrics.

The last two winners, Billy Horschel and Shane Lowry, have both topped the Greens In Regulation rankings and 11 of the last 17 winners have ranked inside the top-four for that stat.

Scrambling has been a key stat of late too with the first three home 12 months ago ranking first, second and third.

Horschel ranked third two years ago and a year earlier, Tyrrell Hatton won ranking first. Danny Willett only ranked eighth in 2019 but the best three scramblers all finished inside the top-seven, Francesco Molinari scrambled better than anyone else when winning here five years ago and the first five home in 2017 all ranked inside the top-eight for Scrambling.

Hatton putted nicely enough three years ago, ranking 11^th for Strokes Gained Putting and 14^th for Putting Average, but you can most definitely win here without holing everything you look at.

Lowry ranked 19^th for SGP and 55^th for PA last year and Horschel only ranked 42^nd and 29^th in 2021. And prior to the changes to the greens, before the 2017 edition, several players took the title despite putting fairly poorly. Anders Hansen ranked just 46th for Putting Average when he won the second of his two titles in 2007 and Simon Khan putted even worse in 2010, when he ranked 55^th.

Is There an Angle In?

This a nuanced track and past course form counts for plenty. Lowry had finished inside the top-six places four times before he won here and he'd led the 2020 edition at halfway before finishing 13^th.

Horschel had finished fourth two years prior to his win on his only prior appearance and year after year we see the same faces in-the-mix. Most winners have previous form around Wentworth, even if it dates back a few years...

The 2020 winner, Hatton, had Wentworth figures reading 38-46-7-30-MC-MC (with the seventh place dating back to 2016), and the 2019 champ, Willett, had finished fifth here on debut nine years earlier and was third in 2016.

Having finished inside the top-nine places in four of his five previous visits, Molinari won here five years ago, a year after finishing second to Alex Noren, who finished third behind Molinari when defending, with the 2014 winner, McIlroy, finishing second! And back in 2017, three of the top-five had finished at least eighth previously.

Luke Donald (back-to-back in 2011 and 2012) was the last multiple event winner, but multiple winners are fairly common. Peter Alliss, Colin Montgomerie, and Bernard Langer have all won the event three times (Monty did in consecutive years between 1998 and 2000) and Nick Faldo has won it four times. And the places are usually dominated by course specialists too...

McIlroy and Jon Rahm finished tied for second last year, so Rory now has course form figures reading MC-5-48-24-MC-MC-1-MC-2-9-2 and Rahm has finished second on his only two starts here.

From a course correlation perspective, it's impossible to ignore how many players have played well here and at Crans, the venue of the Omega European Masters two weeks ago.

The likes of Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Colin Montgomerie, Luke Donald, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Danny Willett, and Alex Noren have all won both events at least once and there are numerous examples of players winning one and finishing second in the other or finishing second in both. That list includes Rory, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, Ernie Els, and Trevor Immelmann. And Crans specialist, Thomas Bjorn, really should have won this event back in 2015 when he led by five after three rounds.

Irish Open should be a perfect prep

In addition to the Omega European Masters, last week's Irish Open at the K Club should prove to be a great pointer given it's a tree-lined parkland course that has seen plenty of Wentworth specialists prosper.

Prior to Vincent Normann's Irish Open victory yesterday, the previous six players to win at the K Club - Rory, Kennie Ferrie, Phillip Price, Michael Campbell, Darren Clarke, and Lee Westwood - all had at least a top-four finish at Wentworth, so the classy Swede might be worth chancing to double up.

Is There an Identikit Winner?

It's been a real mixed bag, price wise. The last six winners have all gone off at double-figure prices and four of the last six were very well fancied but historically, it's been a cracking event for outsiders.

A second win for Denmark's Anders Hansen (2007) and victories for Simon Khan (2010) and Matteo Manassero (2013) were unexpected and very few saw Byeong-Hun An's victory coming eight years ago. And there was a four-year stretch at the turn of the century when the winners were almost impossible to predict. After Monty had won his three in-a-row, Andrew Oldcorn, Anders Hansen, Ignacio Garrido and Scott Drummond all left punters scratching their heads.

I wouldn't put anyone off backing an outsider or two given those results this century and I'll be back later today or more likely tomorrow with the Find Me a 100 Winner Column.

The English have a really good record in this event and with Luke Donald winning back-to-back in 2011 and 2012, seven different Englishman have won eight of the last 17 renewals.

Winner's Position and Price Pre-Final round

• 2022 - Shane Lowry - tied sixth, trailing by two 11.010/1
• 2021 - Billy Horschel - tied third, trailing by two 7.87/1
• 2020 - Tyrrell Hatton - led by three 1.9620/21
• 2019 - Danny Willett - tied for the lead 7.06/1
• 2018 - Francesco Molinari - tied for the lead 3.259/4
• 2017 - Alex Noren T23 - trailing by seven 220.0219/1
• 2016 - Chris Wood T5 - trailing by three 16.5
• 2015 - Byeong-Hun An - tied for the lead 3.711/4

In-Play Tactics

As many as four of the last eight winners have been leading with a round to go but three of the four were tied for the lead and they were the least likely of the tied leaders to win through 54 holes.

Back in 2015, Byeong-Hun An was tied with Molinari, who was tied with Rory before the final round in 2018 and four years ago, Danny Willett entered the final round tied at the top with Jon Rahm.

Hatton was the favourite before round four three years ago but the favourite before the final round has been beaten in eight of the last nine years and we've seen some quite remarkable off-the-pace winners here over the years...

For the majority of tournaments, I stress the importance of being up in the van throughout, getting a fast start and being up with the leaders, but not here.

I've gone as far back as 1990 and other than Hatton in 2020, who was tied for the lead, the only leader or co-leader after round one to go on to take the title is Luke Donald. He went wire-to-wire in 2011, before beating Lee Westwood in a play-off.

Trailing Viktor Hovland and Soren Kjeldsen by a stroke after two rounds, Rory was the favourite with a round to go in the weather-shortened renewal 12 months ago and the winner, Lowry, was two back. As he'd been after round one.

Although in the mix all weekend, Horschel hit a high of 170.0169/1 two years ago after a slow start on Thursday which had seen him play the first 12 holes in two-over-par.

Paul Casey won doggedly after hitting the front at halfway in 2009, as did David Howell in 2006, and between 2000 and 2002, all three 36-hole winners went on to convert but the leaders are always vulnerable here and I'll definitely be looking closely at those off the pace with a round to go again.

Noren was matched at 220.0219/1 on Sunday morning six years ago, as he sat outside the top-20 with a round to go, and that's as far off the lead as any winner has been at Wentworth through 54 holes since 1990 but he was the third winner in eight years to trail by seven strokes with a round to go!

Simon Khan sat tied for 13th and seven back before his win in 2010 and Rory McIlroy trailed Thomas Bjorn by seven in 2014 (Bjorn was matched in-running at just 1.21/5).

Between 1990 and 2006, 12 of the 16 winners led or co-led with a round to go and Tony Johnstone, in 1992, was the only winner not to be inside the front three places through 54 holes. He sat tied for fifth and three off the lead, but it's been a completely different kettle of fish since David Howell's victory in 2006.

In addition to the three aforementioned winners from seven adrift, we've seen victories from three, four and five strokes back.

It's not going to happen every year and it hasn't in each of the last four but being patient in-running and waiting for Sunday to play the chasers at big prices has been a great way to play the tournament of late.

As well as all those big off-the-pace winners, we've had a number of players come close to snatching an unlikely win and we nearly witnessed another huge comeback last year when Jon Rahm finished second, beaten by a stroke.

Having been a 300.0299/1 chance before the third and final round, Rahm was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running as he played his first eight holes of round three in just one-under-par but after a birdie at the tough ninth, he flew home in 29, despite bogeying the 15th, to post a ten-under-par 62

In addition to Rahm last year, the runner-up, Rikard Karlberg, began the final day fully eight strokes adrift of the third-round leader, Scott Hend, in 2016.

Like Rahm, he too was matched at 1000.0999/1 in-running and like Rahm, he dropped a shot late on when he bogeyed the 16th hole. Both men lost by a stroke and both were matched at single-figure prices. Karlberg was matched at just 7.87/1 and Rahm hit a low of 5.24/1.

Unless we get a weather delay like last year, the BMW PGA Championship is over four rounds and four days, just like any other ordinary stroke play event on the DP or PGA Tour, but it somehow feels like a longer tournament than most and the winning line feels like it's a long way off.

In the last nine years, we've had five players trade at odds-on and lose before the fourth round has even begun and two of them went odds-on during round two!

Just like Bjorn in 2014 and Molinari in 2015, Jon Rahm was matched at odds-on during round three in 2019 (1.422/5) and Rory McIlroy hit the front as early as Friday morning in 2018, when he went as low as 1.548/15. And he was the second player in three years to go odds-on during round two and fail to get home! Danny Willet hit 1.855/6 on Friday in 2016.

Although Lowry was the only man to go odds-on last year, late drama is often the norm and two players traded at odds-on on Sunday in 2021 and before losing. Kiradech Aphibarnrat was matched at 1.618/13 and Laurie Canter 1.511/2.

The change from May to September might, in the fullness of time, see a change to the trends as the course shouldn't firm up as much in autumn as it did in the spring but backing longshots from off the pace here through 54 holes isn't a strategy I'm willing to throw away just yet.

I'll be back later today or tomorrow with a look at the market leaders and a summary of any pre-event selections.

Favourites to win the BMW PGA Championship

The brand-new FedEx Cup champion, Viktor Hovland, narrowly heads the betting on the Betfair Exchange over world number two, Rory McIlroy, but both look short enough at around 8/19.00.

Having finished 11th on debut in 2019 and 49^th on his second visit two years later, Hovland led here after rounds one and two 12 months ago before falling to fifth in the third and final round so we know he has an aptitude for the venue.

He was also successful at the BMW International Open in 2021 and at the Dubai Desert Classic in January 2022, so he has a reasonable record when foraying onto the DP World Tour.

As highlighted above, Rory has a reasonable bank of Wentworth form but he'll have to raise himself after Sunday's disappointing display in the Irish Open.

Looking at the stats for last week, it's not a surprise that he hit it further than anyone else and he putted quite nicely too but some of the other figures were far from impressive.

Rory ranked only 66^th for Strokes Gained: Approach, 55^th for SG: Around the Green and 56^th for SG: Tee-to-Green. Those numbers will need to improve if he's to contend again this week.

Jon Rahm is the only other player trading at less than 20/121.00 and after two second-placed finishes here it's only a matter of time before he adds this title to the already illustrious list constructed to date.

It's clearly a venue that suits him and had last year's renewal been over four rounds instead of three he may well have been defending this week instead of Shane Lowry.

He's the one I came closest to backing at the front of the market but his off the pace second behind Brian Harman in the Open Championship in July is his only high finish since he was 10^th at the US Open and that's a slight concern.

This is the Spaniard's first appearance since he finished tied 18^th in the Tour Championship three weeks ago.

My BMW PGA Championship Selection: Back Tom Kim

It's quite rare that I see someone at a reasonably short price that I consider really good value but that's most definitely the case this week with Korea's Tom Kim.

The 21-year-old has a great record when venturing onto the DP World Tour and from just five starts he's already finished third and sixth in the Scottish Open and second at the Open Championship and while that's all links form, there's a very good reason to think he'll take to Wentworth like a duck to water.

Kim won his first PGA Tour event just over a year ago at the Wyndham Championship, by five strokes, despite starting the tournament with a quadruple-bogey eight at the opening hole.

The Wyndham is staged at tree-lined Sedgefield Country Club and while I haven't detailed it above as a course that correlates, it certainly looks like it should.

The vast majority of the field this week will have never been anywhere near the North Carolina layout and not many will have played in both events full stop, but Wentworth winners, Luke Donald, Billy Horschel, and Byeong-Hun An, have all finished second in the Wyndham recently and LIV Golf rebels, Patrick Reed and Branden Grace, both have form at the two tracks.

Kim has shortened up from a high of 40.039/1 on the Betfair Exchange but he's still a very fair price at ten points shorter given how strong that course link looks and how well he's fared when venturing across the Pond.

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*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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