England v New Zealand Fourth ODI Tips: Kiwis worthy of support

Ben Stokes
Stokes is back at Lord's again facing the Kiwis in an ODI

Ed Hawkins unveils a toss bias on a potentially tricky Lord's surface and argues the tourists are value to level the series on Friday...

England v New Zealand
Friday 15 September, 12:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

England v New Zealand team news

England will have been delighted with a thunderous display at The Oval inspired by more breathtaking, record-breaking feats from Ben Stokes.

Still, there should be a little bit of concern in the camp that with one game left before the real prep begins, they're struggling to get Jason Roy and Mark Wood fit. Certainly the former now looks unlikely to force his way into the starting XI.

The continued absence of Adil Rashid is also interesting. The way the Kiwis tucked into him in Cardiff may mean England continue with Liam Livingstone and Moeen Ali as spin options for the tournament.

Possible XI: Bairstow, Malan, Root, Stokes, Buttler, Livingstone, Moeen, S Curran, Woakes, Atkinson, Topley

New Zealand failed to build on an excellent start with the ball for the second-game running. Perhaps not surprising at The Oval on a good pitch with an attack that included Kyle Jamieson and Ben Lister, neither considered good enough for the World Cup squad.

Henry Nicholls batted at No 3 and it's perhaps slightly surprising that skipper Tom Latham didn't make a statement and consider batting there to give himself much-needed crease time.

Possible XI: Conway, Young, Nicholls, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Ravindra, Jamieson, Ferguson, Boult, Lister

England v New Zealand pitch report

The sluggish surface which these two had to contend with in the World Cup final in 2019 has continued. England could manage only 247 and 246 respectively against Pakistan and India last year but they still defended comnfrtably. There's a big toss bias, too, with 10 of the last 12 here won by the side batting first.

Shorting a par line is less fraught if the Kiwis bat first instead of England. No rain is forecast.

England v New Zealand match odds

The white-ball contests between these two have been one-sided this summer but blows have been traded in terms of results. England are 2-1 ahead in the ODI leg and 4-3 ahead overall.

There is a suspicion that New Zealand have begun to run out of steam but they may be revitalised batting first. Considering it's been a terrific contest it is hard not to consider them worthy of support at an inflated 2.9015/8.

Back New Zealand batting first @ 2.9015/8

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England v New Zealand player bets

Jos Buttler was a win-rate bet for top England bat at The Oval and that hasn't changed, even at 9/25.50. We're slightly miffed he's been cut, though.

There will plenty of takers of Stokes' price for top bat and man of the match considering the venue and opposition are the same from that 2019 epic. Stokes is 7/24.50 for top bat and 13/27.50 for man of the match.

For the Kiwis, we're still keen on Will Young to deliver at 4/15.00, which is a 4% swing on two-year win rate. Tom Latham is also of interest with 3.1% swing at 7/18.00.

Back Jos Buttler top England bat @9/25.50

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Ed Hawkins P-L

2023: +22.61

2022: +16.79

2021: +29.41pts

2020: +5.91pts

2019: +37.25pts

2018: +23.53pts

2017: +12pts

2016: +18.1pts

2015: +38pts

2014: +31.5pts

2013: +25pt


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