England v Australia Fourth ODI Tips: Weather keeps England keen again

Friday 27 September 12:30
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England v Australia Fourth ODI team news

England remain alive in the series thanks to Will Jacks and Harry Brook combining in a chase in Durham. Jacks made 84 and Brook an unbeaten 110 as they won by 46 runs under DLS after conceding 304.

There is certain to be at least one change. Jofra Archer is not to be risked back-to-back so Olly Stone may come back into the XI. Reece Topley, Saqib Mahmood and John Turner are other options.

Possible XI: Duckett, Salt, Jacks, Brook, Smith, Livingstone, Bethell, Carse, Rashid, Potts, Stone

Australia rested Adam Zampa for game three but he should come back with the threat of squandering a 2-0 lead real. The attack lacked craft in his absence. Presumably Travis Head also comes back after been given the day off.

Aaron Hardie and Matt Short could be the men to make way respectively. Marnus Labuschagne may also be under consideration for the chop. Cooper Connolly, the Scorchers all-rounder, has yet to feature.

Mitchell Starc or Josh Hazlewood could be rotated this time. Ben Dwarshuis is an option

Possible XI: Head, Marsh, Smith, Labuschagne/Connolly, Green, Maxwell, Carey, Abbott, Starc/Hazlewood, Dwarshuis, Zampa

England v Australia Fourth ODI pitch report

There is no less than 62% rain forecast from the start of play until 15:00 for Lord's on game day. That is likely to mean a reduction in overs. The innings runs market will be settled if 20 overs are completed.

Only three ODI have been played at the venue in the last five years. More thrusting England sides with the bat than this one managed only 247 and 246 respectively against Pakistan and India in 2021 and 2022. They did make 311 in a success over the Kiwis last year, however. The run rate for the cumulative period for all innings is at 5.16.

Factor that figure for the number of overs we do get. So we're looking at going unders 190-210 for a 35-over first dig.

England v Australia Fourth ODI match prediction

We thought the Riverside conditions would be a good leveller. And although England proved that to be correct, it has to be said that the biggest factors were the absences of Head and Zampa. They make Australia by far the stronger side again if they come back.

Still, with rain around and zip off the surface, England will not be shy about getting stuck into the Aussie bats. Bowling first in helpful conditions make them an option. Nothing budges a market like quick wickets up front.

So from a starting point of 2.3611/8 we can see them being capable of flipping the odds to Australia's current 1.728/11 Add 50% to the original stake on the lay button for a simple back-to-lay all green.

There is an angle on sixes. We need 40 overs for bets to stand as per the rules but unders 12.5 at 5/61.84 with Sportsbook seems a good option historically. That mark has been busted only twice in the last 13.

England v Australia Fourth ODI player bets

Twenty-five overs are required for a top bat and bowler bet to stand with Sportsbook. Obviously opening bats come to the fore if any overs are lost so Ben Duckett, who has looked in decent nick may prove popular at 7/24.50 for top England bat. Head will be all the rage at 3/14.00 for the Aussies.

With Zampa likely to come back we have to stick with a player who boasted a 46% win rate before the series began. There is ground form for spinners with Moeen Ali and Rachin Ravindra taking four each last year. And in fewer overs, runs conceded (which decide a dead heat) could make all the difference as Zampa is ordinarily tight. He is rated at 3/14.00 by Sportsbook for top Aussie bowler.

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