England v Australia Fifth ODI Tips: Can England complete the comeback?

Sunday 28 September 11:00
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England v Australia Fifth ODI team news

England gambled on playing Jofra Archer in back-to-back matches in game four at Lord's. He rewarded them with two wickets in a crushing victory. Do they risk him again? Surely not, even if an unlikely series win is within their grasp.

Matt Potts and Brydon Carse, with seven wickets apiece in the series, will argue they are attack leaders anyway. From that point of view, the contests have been a success as the hosts have found two players. And there are decent options available in the shape of Olly Stone, Reece Topley, Saqib Mahmood and John Turner.

Harry Brook's blistering return to form with consecutive top-bat wins in their two wins is a reward for his insistence that England would continue to attack.

Possible XI: Duckett, Salt, Jacks, Brook, Smith, Livingstone, Bethell, Carse, Rashid, Potts, Stone

Australia have squandered a two-nill lead in England. Again. Perhaps they are guilty of too much chopping and changing. They have used 15 players in four matches. Perhaps they're more interested in testing bench strength.

Trying to predict what XI they go for in a decider is tricky because one suspects they're not entirely sure what their best XI is. That confusion may be spreading to the players. Matt Short didn't bat t all in game one but has been used as an opener for example. He has now been dropped.

Josh Inglis came in for the injured Cameron Green in London. Aaron Hardie or a start for Copper Connolly with Marnus Labuschagne? They have to keep going with Mitch Starc and Josh Hazlewood.

Possible XI: Head, Marsh, Smith, Inglis, Maxwell, Hardie, Carey, Abbott, Starc, Zampa, Hazlewood

England v Australia Fifth ODI pitch report

There have been only four ODI played at Bristol since the start of 2019. It has been a difficult wicket to judge because of mismatches. Afghanistan made 207 against Australia in 2019, Sri Lanka 166 against England in 2021 and last year England made 280 for four of 31 before rain versus Ireland. The odd one out was Pakistan failing to defend 358 against England in 2019.

In the domestic one-day cup, when rain has not reduced contests, there were first-innings scores of 267-262-177-267-454 in the last two years.

Looking up is often key in Bristol. If the sun is out you can get some flat surfaces. But with rain forecast again, we're looking at the potential for another shortened contest. It may be that expected downpours from 16:00 wash out the contest. Late rain is much more damaging in tis regard than early rain. So a completed match market bet for is an option if even money gets up in-play.

England v Australia Fifth ODI match prediction

Momentum has swung decisively in England's favour. Of course, many will argue there isn't such a thing in pro sport but it is undeniable that Australia suddenly don't look so confident. Conceding a massive 312 off just 39 overs at hq and then being rolled for 126 was not on the formguide.

Australia have allowed England to force their way back into the contest. Are they complacent? Maybe. That sort of fear puts one off taking prices at odds-on.

Man for man, though, they are supposed to be far better than a hotch-potch England team. If skies are grey and moisture is in the air, having the courage to bowl first if the toss goes their way suggests they will be bang at it. They should steal it if they stay on the pitch. We have said all along that 1.804/5 Australia is the price and we stick by it.

England v Australia Fifth ODI player bets

Ben Duckett rattled off a ton against the Irish on this ground last year so 7/24.50 fav status on top England bat seems fair. If the new ball does do some talking and England's top order are walking, Jamie Smith has the ability for a rescue act and 11/26.50 is the sort of price that won't be around for long given his ability. Brook is 7/24.50

For Australia, potential bowler-friendly conditions and that Lord's collapse in mind makes the 33s about Sean Abbott and 75s about Mitchell Starc top scoring fancies. Hardie, however, may be the more sensible call at an inflated 20/121.00. Travis Head is 3/14.00.

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