Ed Hawkins sees an opportunity to bet the Aussie at an inflated price in game two on Sunday at Old Trafford...
"We cannot remember a layer ever being as brave about an opener who is so consistent in winning the market. To be clear, Sportsbook rate him on implied probability at 22.2%. His win rate in the last two-and-a-bit years is 30%."
As touched on in our match preview, Sportsbook have seen something in David Warner this series that they do not like and have pushed him out accordingly in the betting for top Australia runscorer.
And then some. The drift in Warner's price and, get this, boost to 7/2 has to be one of the biggest prices ever seen for a player of Warner's record, reputation, quality and opening position.
We cannot remember a layer ever being as brave about an opener who is so consistent in winning the market. To be clear, Sportsbook rate him on implied probability at 22.2%. His win rate in the last two-and-a-bit years is 30%. The just-shy eight-point gap is normally associated with a unfashionable middle order player in a team with one or two dominant forces, like Ross Taylor lurking in the shadow of a Kane Williamson or Martin Guptill.
So why have they done it? The most obvious reason is that they reckon Warner is set to be Jofra Archer's bunny. In the second T20 and first ODI, Archer cramped Warner for room and bamboozled him with a tight angle of attack, getting him caught behind and bowled.
Another reason could be the Old Trafford wicket. It's not easy-paced and batsmen cannot just hit through the line of the ball.
But then Warner is not a blaster. He can do it all on all surfaces, which means it is hard to turn down the opportunity to bet him at such a price, particularly with 11/4 favourite Steve Smith a doubt.
It is true that Sportsbook have a good record of late when taking on openers they don't rate. England's Jason Roy is an example of that. This summer they have persistently pitched his price high - he is 7/2 for Sunday's action - for the simple reason that they just don't think he's very good. And in the ODIs against Ireland and against Australia on Friday they have been proved right. Roy might argue he was the victim of an extraordinary catch off his own bowling by Josh Hazlewood.
While on the subject of Hazlewood, how typical that our wager for top Australia bowler was pipped by one wicket - by Adam Zampa - but won the man of the match award. Betting can be cruel. Which is why when we get the chance to take an inflated bet like Warner, we grasp it.
Hazlewood is rated at 7/2 again and it is unjust that his effort didn't merit even a tie. Zampa is 4/1. On win rates, Hazelwood has an edge of 4.4% and Zampa -5%.
Australia top bat wins/matches
Finch 9 t/46
Australia top bowler wins/matches
Hazlewood 4 2t/15
Starc 5 3t/25
Cummins 6 4t/35
Zampa 5 5t/33
England top bat wins/matches
Bairstow 11 1t/55
Root 9 1t/61
Buttler 6 1t/55
England top bowler wins/matches
Rashid 7 11t/61
Woakes 6 7t/40
Wood 2 6t/39
Ali 3 5t/53
T Curran 3 1t/21
Archer 1 6t/14