Cricket World Cup

Afghanistan v Pakistan World Cup Tips: Ibrahim drift hard to ignore

Mohammad Rizwan
Rizwan is 9/2 for top Pakistan bat

Ed Hawkins picks out 9/25.50 and 20/121.00 top-bat bets and analyses the chances of another shock in Chennai on Monday...

Afghanistan v Pakistan
Monday 23 October, 09:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Afghanistan v Pakistan World Cup team news

Afghanistan are in must-win territory having already lost three matches. On a turning surface they may look to attack Pakistan with any army of spinners, picking Noor Ahmad. Faz Farooqi could miss out or all-rounder Azmatullah Ormazai. The latter call would, however, further weaken an unreliable batting line-up.

Possible XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Shah, Hashmatullah, Omarzai, Alikhil, Nabi, Rashid, Mujeeb, Noor, Naveen

Pakistan can afford only one more slip after defeat by Australia. Their bowlers will take credit from pulling the Aussies back from 400-plus but, in truth, that is an old Australia failing rather than anything unique to Pakistan. A chase of 367 was on - for a bit - but they fell away. Shadab Khan may come back in for Usama Mir who was appalling against Australia.

Probable XI: Imam, Shafique, Babar, Rizwan, Shakeel, Iftikhar, Nawaz, Shadab, Afridi, Hasan, Rauf

Afghanistan v Pakistan World Cup pitch report

The Chennai surface is spin friendly and this could be a war of attrition. If Afghanistan were to bat first then playing low totals on innings runs could pay off. Twice they've been bowled out for under 156 and unders 160s, 170 and 180 is a decent start.

Afghanistan v Pakistan World Cup match odds

Pakistan have never lost to Afghanistan. In August the teams met in a three-match series which Pakistan swept. One was won by a narrow one-wicket margin, the other two were heavy beatings.

Given that record it is hard not to reckon that the 3.7011/4 on Afghanistan is miserly. There is, perhaps, a case for the trade keeping Pakistan's unpredictability on side but it's probably with Afghanistan in the field because their batting is poor.

Afghanistan v Pakistan World Cup player bets

Ibrahim Zadran's win rate is down to 25% with no wins so far. As a result Sportsbook have lengthened him to 9/25.50 for top bat, implied probability of just over 18%. It's probably worth another crack. Omarzai is a wrong price on batting order at 17/29.50. Rahmanullah Gurbaz took 150 off Pakistan in August so 16/54.20 will be attractive. Imam-ul-Haq has been boosted to 5/23.50 while Babar Azam is 11/43.75 and Mohammad Rizwan 9/25.50. Agha Salman is not expected to play but if he does you've got a 20/121.00 bet about a guy who will bat at No 5.

Back Ibrahim Zadran top Afghanistan bat @ 9/25.50

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