West Indies v New Zealand
Sunday 14 August, 19:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
West Indies seem incapable of putting together a bowling display. A couple of their six bowlers might perform but the rest will go round the park. In ten matches against India and New Zealand this year they have an economy rate of just shy of nine an over.
In game two they went round the par for 215. Hayden Walsh, usually pretty tight, cost them 13 an over. Odean Smith was once again expensive. Potential replacements Alzarri Joseph and DOminic Drakes may make limited difference.
They also have chronic batting problems. Managing only 125 on what looks like a road at Sabina Park is unacceptable.
Possible XI: Mayers, Brooks, Pooran, Thomas, Hetmyer, Holder, Powell, Shepherd, Smith, Walsh, McCoy
Seven of West Indies nine wickets to fall in game two went to spinners. In game one it was four from seven. In West Indies' final T20 against India they lost all ten wickets to spin. So no wonder New Zealand picked three spinners in Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi and Michael Bracewell.
With the series won they may want to have a look at Finn Allen in the opening berth instead of Martin Guptill. Lockie Ferguson may also get a game with one from Trent Boult and Tim Southee rested.
Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Mitchell, Neesham, Bracewell, Santner, Sodhi, Southee, Ferguson
Sabina Park is full of runs. And with a wayward bowling unit on offer from the hosts this market is one to play if the toss goes the Kiwis' way and they bat first. Prices are shortening about big runs for the visitors and it's likely that 3.505/2 will be available for 200 or more when previously that's a price reserved for 190 or more. Bet here.
How to play
West Indies are 2.8415/8 with New Zealand 1.584/7. If we're playing this market we have to hope for West indies to bat first. SO we're covered for toss options. A West Indies trade if they bat first. A runs wager on the Kiwis if they bat first.
The surface looks so flat and true that the hosts really should be capable of batting with freedom in the absence of scoreboard pressure. A score of 170 or more should get them close to 2.1011/10 for a trade. Bet here.
The value for West Indies could be lower down. Prices that catch the eye are Odean Smith at 55/1. He batted at No 4 against Bangladesh in June. Akeal Hosein, if he comes back into the side, is always worth a flutter at 40s. Likewise Roamrio Shepherd at 50s. We'll dutch all three but Windies must chase. For New Zealand, Finn Allen is priced at 3/1.
With the ball, spinner Michael Bracewell is way too big at 10s considering Windies' horror record against spin. We're looking for a tie. Bet the Sportsbook prices here.