West Indies v Bangladesh
Sunday 10 July, 14:30
TV: live on BT Sport
Windies have poor record
Either side of West Indies' 3-0 stroll in the Netherlands, they were whitewashed by India and Pakistan. And before that India defeat they were beaten 2-1 at home by Ireland.
They are far from reliable in this format, unlike T20 when they proved to be a cut above Bangladesh across the two completed games.
There is a change of personnel. The excellent Shai Hope returns to open. And a double of pacers are added to the mix: Jayden Seales and Anderson Philip.
Keacy Carter, who batted at No 4 last time out against Pakistan, is probably in competition with Brandon King for a berth. West Indies have struggled to find a reliable middle-order player and Carty has a chance to nail down a spot. There is no room in the squad for Hayden Walsh or Romario Shepherd.
Possible XI: Hope, Mayers, Brooks, Carty, Pooran, Powell, Hosein, Paul, Joseph, Seales, Philip
The good news for Bangladesh is that Tamim Iqbal, the opener, returns to the squad. The bad news is that their standout best player, Shakib-al-Hasan, doesn't fancy it and has gone home.
Not to forget the absence of Mushfiqur Rahim again, it is hard to reckon that Bangladesh are a team which can cope without their strongest players available. With all their top men they won 2-1 in South Africa last time out.
In the last 12 months, its seven wins from nine. The calibre of the other opposition (Zimbabwe and Afghanistan) shouldn't concern us considering the Windies' record.
Possible XI: Tamim, Shanto, Das, Mahmudullah, Afif, Mossadek, Nurul, Mehidy Hasan Miraz, Taskin, Taijul, Mustafizur
There have been only three ODIs played at Providence in the last five years, and one of those was a washout. However, the other two (in 2018) involved these two teams. West Indies won both of them batting first having post 279 and 271.
Unfortunately there have been no List A matches domestically. The T20 surface is our best guide. It looked unlike previous Providence wickets which were notoriously slow and low. With games two and three also at the venue, we have time on our side before we consider a runs wager. The runs market is here.
Bangladesh can get a grip
West Indies are 1.42/5 and Bangladesh 3.185/40. We're not convinced the gulf between these two teams is anywhere near as large.
For a start, the head-to-head suggests the favourite is the wrong one. Bangladesh have won the last eight and eleven of the last 13. That includes two wins in the Caribbean, three in Dublin and one in Taunton.
Conditions could well make a difference but Bangladesh should have little to fear from the surfaces. A bouncer barrage from the Windies may not be conducive in Providence.
At the least we expect Bangladesh to trade as favourites so a simple back-to-lay is a sensible strategy. Look to lay out as soon as they go odds on. Bet the market here
Shai Hope is 11/4 to be top West Indies bat. That's a price boost. Hope has one of the highest win rates in the world in this format and Sportsbook will never go short enough. We expect to bet him throughout the series.
With Hope so reliable we note the 6/1 that he takes man of the match and 10/3 that he is top match bat. Kyle Mayers is 3/1 for top Windies bat and is probably his greatest threat.
There's value aplenty on top Bangladesh bat because Sportsbook have listed Shakib at 10/3. Tamim is boosted to an eyecatching 7/2, the same price as Liton Das. The big value is Afif Hosein at 10/1. We have listed him at No 5 but he could bat as high as No 4. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.