West Indies v Australia Fourth T20 Tips: Keep backing Rovman for runs

• West Indies might be a risk in chase

• Otherwise clear in-play strategy on Aussies

• Warner Park surface confirmed as road

• Powell faith must be shown at 13/27.50 

West Indies v Australia
Sunday 26 July, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

West Indies v Australia Fourth T20 team news

West Indies are 3-0 down and the series has gone. They will be perturbed at how uncompetitive they have been given they are at home and this is supposed to be their strongest format. But at least they had the good sense to pick their best bowler, Romario Shepherd. Maybe the scoreline might be different had he played the first two matches. 

They can also be credited from removing Alzarri Joseph from the firing line. Unfortunately his replacement, Jedia Blades, suffered. On debut he cost 13.3 an over. It means they are close to getting out what could be their best XI. Recognising that this surface is all about power and finding room for Evin Lewis is they key and it has to be said that Roston Chase is probably the most vulnerable. 

Possible WI XI:  King, Lewis, Hope, Hetmyer, Rutherford, Powell, Shepherd, Holder, Motie, Akeal, Forde

Australia could also be criticised for holding back Tim David until game two, who won the third match all on his own. Australia were in trouble chasing 215 and at 87 for 4. Just 37 strikes later from David's bat later the match was over. He got them up in the 17th. Extraordinary. Just the eleven sixes from him, too.

Glenn Maxwell and Mitch Marsh opened the batting. When Travis Head returns and Maxwell goes back to the middle-order, probably at the expense of Cooper Connolly, they will have a hell of a side. 

Probable Australia XI:  Maxwell, Marsh, Inglis, Green, David, Owen, Connolly, Abbott, Dwarshuis, Zampa, Ellis

West Indies v Australia Fourth T20 pitch report

It is safe to say that the Warner Park surface is the one used for franchise cricket. Before game three there were differing trends for T20i and franchise. Previously in the last 10 in the former the average first-innings score was 139. In franchise in the last 10 that number was 197.

Indeed, it is something of a relief that one didn't get stuck in off the back of the T20i form. Checking both formats can be useful. It also shows that a wait-and-see policy can pay dividends.

We can be confident this should be another flat one.  The markets also agree. Hence the high line on Australia match runs at 206.5. There is angle on over six-over runs for the Aussies at 61.5 but you will pay 4/51.80. The sixes line at 34.5 might also be slightly too low considering boundary size. Forecast thunderstorms are expected to have cleared by afternoon so there should be no issue with delays.

West Indies v Australia Fourth T20 match prediction

We await Betfair exchange prices but having moaned about odds being shorter in games two and three than than they were for the first outing, Sportsbook's 13/82.63 is going in the right direction. But there are caveats before getting with the West Indies here.

They need to be a chaser. In three matches they have batted first and in three matches they have lost. That's because their bowlers cannot apply pressure. It may be that Australia's, who have hardly been parsimonious, could also crack under the strain of defending on a small ground and flat wicket.

There is, then, the idea to get with the hosts at inflated odds on the Exchange to go after anything up to 210. If not, we are more than happy to apply the same strategy as discussed for game three which is to bet Australia to get anything up to 220 in a chase. Simples. 

West Indies v Australia Third T20 player bets

Shepherd showed the value of understanding how often a player wins a market. And there's nothing better than a player copping at first opportunity. As important as spotting that trend, is to keep backing it when there have been a few blanks. If Shepherd hadn't won, we would be backing him again.

And so to Rovman Powell. Powell's win rate has ticked under again. It is now at 30% in the last two years (19 matches). Betfair Sportsbook rate him as a 13.3% chance so we have to get involved. He is the standout bet of the game at 13/27.50. 

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