West Indies v Australia Fifth T20 Tips: Windies can finally win one...if they chase

• West Indies are leaky when defending

• Innings break betting strategy is strong

• Sixes line starting too look high

• Powell in the win zone at 6s

West Indies v Australia
Tuesday 29 July, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

West Indies v Australia Fifth T20 team news

West Indies should have avoided the whitewash last time out at Warner Park. After posting a strong 205 they were in the box seat having reduced Australia to 134 for five. Left-armer Jedia Blades, who looks a real find, had taken three for 29. Two dropped catches, however, one by Blades himself, cost them the chance to apply further pressure.

Despite the four defeats there is little prospect of significant changes. At this stage West Indies have probably made all the right picks bar one, removing Roston Chase to allow Evin Lewis to provide more explosive impetus up front. If they wanted further experiment batter Jewel Andrew could replace Brandon King. Lewis is also in the mix there.

Possible WI XI:  King/Andrew/Lewis, Hope, Hetmyer, Rutherford, Powell, Shepherd, Holder, Motie, Akeal, Forde

Australia have confirmed that Glenn Maxwell is only keeping the opening role warm for Travis Head once he returns to the squad. But Glenn Maxwell is enjoying himself in the meantime. He got them off to a rollicking start in the stiff chase in game four with 47 from 18.

Tim David is being rested after he broke the record in game three for Australia's fastest century so Aaron Hardie came into the middle order to produce a late cameo to get them over the line. Pacer Xavier Bartlett came in for Ben Dwarshuis. 

The visitors may be rotating at this stage so Dwarshuis could replace Nathan Ellis. Adam Zampa may also be given a rest with Matt Kuhnemann back into the starting XI.

Possible Australia XI:  Maxwell, Marsh, Inglis, Green, Owen, Connolly, Hardie, Dwarshuis, Abbott, Bartlett, Kuhnemann

West Indies v Australia Fifth T20 pitch report

Warner Park has looked flat in the two matches so far with both teams scoring 200 in each. Often a high price on such a outcome the markets are wise. Sportsbook offer 23/103.30. With traffic going through the surface now, it is tempting to take the contrary view which is often so profitable. Only dead fish swim with the tide and all that. So it could be worth questioning if the lines on sixes for example are too high. 

Over/under 23.5 looks steep, especially considering unders would have been a winner last time. There are power hitters throughout both teams but it is worth remembering that David's 11 sixes in an innings might give an artifical view. Australia are over/under 199.5 total match runs. That would be an overs play if you were prepared to gamble on the toss. Their bat-first 20-over line would be higher.

West Indies v Australia Fourth T20 match prediction

We have consistently bemoaned the West Indies price shortening despite defeat after defeat. The 2.707/4 on the Exchange is a price which is going in the right direction but is it enough of a hike from the 2.407/5s that we saw earlier in the series? Possibly.

For that to be a bet we would want Windies to chase. They have shown themselves to be incapable of using scoreboard pressure to keep things tight in the field. And even pre-toss there is a sense that you would get bigger at the break if Australia really cut loose. 

The truth is that playing before the flip doesn't make sense. This is a chasing venue at the moment and we have stated consistently that we would back Australia in-play to get anything up to 220 at greater odds. In-play the Aussies have been a gold mine. There is no need to switch from such a strategy. And if Windies bat second we will look for 3.02/1.

West Indies v Australia Fifth T20 player bets

Regular readers of these pages know what is coming. We are waiting on Rovman Powell to deliver his customary top-bat win. Often he is someone who takes time to warm-up in a series and it looked as though he was going to land for us last time when he fell agonisingly short. Just a hit away. But we have to keep faith. Betting is all about finding the wrong price and Powell is certainly that at the 6/17.00 for top bat. 

Why is it wrong? Well, we know that Powell wins 28.5% of the time. Sportsbook's odds suggest he wins 14% of the time. For Australia Maxwell was looking ominous. A big one could be close. He is 7/24.50.

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