Sri Lanka v New Zealand Third ODI Tips: Kiwis need toss to go their way

Sri Lanka v New Zealand
Tuesday 19 November 09.00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Third ODI team news

Sri Lanka have an unassailable 2-0 lead with one to play. They were made to work reasonably hard for the victory in game two, winning by three wickets when chasing 209 in 47 overs.

They have tweaked their XI, bringing in extra spinners with Dilshan Madushanka left out. They used four spinners and took eight wickets as the Kiwis struggled to cope. One would expect them to go with the same bowling unit.

They could make changes with the bat. Pathum Nissanka, the opener, could make way for Nishan Maduskha. They may want to give a game to all-rounders Sudhan Hemantha or Chamindiu Wickramasigne, Janith Liyanage may have a rest for the latter in a like-for-like.

Possible Sri Lanka XI: Madushka, Avishka, Kusal Mendis, Asalanka, Kamindu, Samarawickrama, Wickramasinghe, Hasaranga, Wellalage, Theekshana, Asitha

The Kiwis picked eight all-rounders in their ODI squad and have used five. Those who have missed out could be in contention. Dean Foxcroft could bat up the order, likewise Josh Clarkson and Zakaray Foulkes lower down, who played in the T20s.

Glenn Phillips may be considered vulnerable after a poor tour. Nathan Smith could also be given a game off. With the ball, Adam Milne is available and few would argue he would be a more than adequate replacement for jacob Duffy.

Possible New Zealand XI: Robinson, Young, Nicholls, Foxcroft, Chapman, Bracewell, Hay, Santner, Foukes, Milne, Sodhi

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Third ODI pitch report

In all 38 day-night ODI that have produced a result there is a toss bias. Twenty-four of those games have now been won by the team chasing after Sri Llanka's win on Sunday. That's 63%.

In the last three years there have been ten wins for the chaser from 18. Before game two we felt the surface could be tricky and Sri Lanka's use of their spin army suggests a slow and low surface. Playing unders on New Zealand innings runs at 260 could be available at 1.9010/11. The market will be settled if 20 overs are bowled. There is forecast rain.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Third ODI match prediction

Sri Lanka are 1.618/13 with New Zealand 2.65. That's a market move from 1.454/9 and 3.1511/5 respectively before game two. It's not clear why the market has adjusted in that fashion.

It is rare for the odds to consider a dead rubber, toss bias or potential loss of overs in such stark terms. It could be the combination of three at play and, as yet, unknown team changes.

Regardless, the Kiwis are worth a follow if they can chase. They remain full of purpose and are likely to fight hard to restore some pride. Sri Lanka let in the West Indies for a conolation win last month when 2-0 up. Sportsbook offer 6/42.50 currently but that might not dip much on the toss.

Sri Lanka v New Zealand Third ODI player bets

Glenn Phillips has been pushed out to 5/16.00 and we'll retain a small interest for top bat based on win rate. There are other options to consider on the performance market with Nathan Smith a potential unders play (1pt per run, 10 per catch, 20 per wicket) at 30.5 for 5/61.84. Smith has only played two ODIs, is batting down at No 9 and his medium pace may not be suited to the surface. Any reductions in overs also helps.

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