Sri Lanka v Bangladesh
Thursday 1 September, 00:00
TV: Live on Sky 717
Sri Lanka produced a stinker in their first game, toss bias or not, against Afghanistan. They were rolled for just 105.
Their fragility was perhaps best evidenced by Wanindu Hasaranga batting at No 6. He's a terrific player but it's at least one spot too high.
Options to come in include Dhananjaya de Silva or Dinesh CHandimal to offer more experience. Or they could be more gung-ho and go with Ashen Bandara.
Possible XI: Nissanka, Kusal, Asalanka, Gunathilaka, Rajapaksa, Hasaranga, Shanaka, Karunaratne, Theekshana, Pathirana, Madushanka
Bangladesh also lost to Afghanistan in their first outing, when choosing to bat first in Sharjah. They were criticised for an unimaginative bowling attack when the focus should have been on the batters.
In the UAE a team should be bang in the race with 160 on the board so reckless play is not required. Senior players like Shakib-al-Hasan and Mushfiqur need to knuckle down.
Possible XI: Naim, Haque, SHakib, Mushfiqur, Afif, Mahmudullah, Mossadek, Mahedi Hasan, Saifuddin, Taskin, Mustafizur
Fourteen of the last 15 matches in Dubai have been won by the chaser. Big runs are unlikely in first-innings. Only three matches have seen a first-dig score of 160 or more. So it's a solid unders play on first innings runs if we can lay at around 2.206/5. Bet the runs line here.
How to play
These two are well-matched insofar as both are as poor as each other. Thank the Lord for the heavy toss bias to help us find the value.
As we have said consistently through this tournament: back the chaser to level stakes. We go in again, then on the team batting second. Fingers crossed it's Bangladesh at around the 2.608/5 mark with Sri Lanka 1.594/7. Bet the match odds here .
Keep an eye out for top Sri Lanka bat prices. Bandara was chalked up at 100/1 last time. Considering he's and out-and-out batter it's one we cannot afford to miss. For Bangladesh we often say Afif is a steal but at the right price only. We would want at least 11/2. Bet Sportsbook here.