South Africa v West Indies First ODI Tips: Windies underrated to cause upset

• Windies value at 4.707/2

• Rassie rare value for top SA bat

• WI's Brooks worth a follow

South Africa v West Indies
Thursday 16 March, 11:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

South Africa have not bothered to pick a full-strength squad for this one, which seems an odd move given it's a World Cup year. There is no (deep breath) David Miller, Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen, Kagiso Rabada, Anrich Nortje or Tabraiz Shamsi.

The first three will return for the third ODI. Keshav Maharaj is injured. Jannie Malan has been dropped. Not surprisingly the batting looks weak.

Possible XI: De Kock, Bavuma, van der Dussen, de Zorzi, Stubbs, Rickleton Mulder, Phehlukwayo, Fortuin, Williams, Ngidi

West Indies are minus Alzarri Joseph, their best bowler in the last 12 months in terms of wickets taken. He is not listed in the squad.

They have the usual plethora of lower-order hitters. It will be interesting to see whether they go with Yanic Cariah or Odean Smith. Shannon Gabriel is perhaps a surprise inclusion.

Possible XI: Hope, Mayers, Brooks, King, Powell, Pooran, Shepherd, Holder Akeal, Cariah/Odean, Gabriel

Pitch report

Buffalo Park is one of the smaller venues in South Africa and there have been whopping runs in the past. South Africa made a record for the ground of 369 against Bangladesh in 2017. That was the last ODI played there. In three domestic 50-over matches this season there have been scores of 276, 297 and 217.

Forecast showers could make batting tricky, though, so it could be worth going under South Africa runs at around 270 or West Indies at 250 on the par line.

How to play

South Africa are as short as 1.271/4 with West Indies 4.707/2. It is almost impossible not to reckon the Windies are a value call.

That view is based solely on the fact that this is a reserve South Africa team. The bare minimum for the Windies should be to expect them to trade as favourites.

We are absolutely aware of their poor record in the format over the last 12 months (four wins in 15) but they did beat the Kiwis in one from three in their previous series and were very competitive against India.

Tops value

Finding a bad bet can be as useful as finding a solid one. Step forward Quinton de Kock who has zero wins in his last 16 on top bats. He is a big swerve at Sportsbook's boosted to 10/3.

Rassie van der Dussen is the solid option at 7/2. He has won five of the last 20 with most of those big batting team-mates present.

For West Indies, Shamrah Brooks has three wins in 15 and probably should be shorter than 5/1. Shai Hope has been a go-to option for top Windies bat but he's too short at 3/1.