South Africa v Pakistan Third ODI Tips: Pakistan still underrated despite 2-0 lead

South Africa v Pakistan
Sunday 22 December, 12:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

South Africa v Pakistan Third ODI team news

With the series lost and focus on the Test contest to come, it would be a major surprise if South Africa didn't take key men out of the firing line. Temba Bavuma already missed game one to manage workload so if there is an issue it seems pointless risking him in a dead rubber.

Tony de Zorzi, Aiden Markram, Tristan Stubbs, Marjo Jansen, Kagiso Rabada and breakthrough pacer Kwena Maphaka could all be under consideration to take a day off. They can't all be rested but it looks certain that Rassie van der Dussen plays for example and only one of the fast men. Pacer Ottniel Baartman is out with injury with Corbin Bosch called up as his replacement.

Possible SA XI: De Zorzi, Rickleton, van der Dussen, Stubbs, Klaasen, Miller, Phehlukwayo, Fortuin, Bosch, Maphaka, Shamsi

Pakistan may also consider bench strength with Mohammad Hasnain a probable starter given he has had no game time so far. Naseem Shah, the only pacer who straddles both ODI and Test squads, is expected to be rested.

Batters Usman Khan and Tayyab Tahir are also due a run out. Whether that means that someone like Babar Azam has a break remains to be seen. They may also want to give one of Abdullah Shafique, Saim Ayub or Kamran Ghulam a break.

Possible Pakistan XI: Usman, Shafique, Ghulam, Tahir, Rizwan, Salman, Irfan, Afridi, Rauf, Abrar, Hasnain

South Africa v Pakistan Third ODI pitch report

There is a chunky toss bias at Jo'burg in day-nighters, but not the way you would expect. Of the 23 matches 15 have been won by the chaser. The last, however, was way back in 2018 and India bucked the trend, defending 287. In terms of first-innings runs it is not the road that many would expect.

Sure, scores of 341 by South Africa against Pakistan in 2021 and 315 by the hosts against the Aussies suggest a flat one but equally there have been low numbers. See the Saffers rolled for 116 against India last year or the middling 256 by South Africa against England in 2020. There is no rain forecast but the match could start under cloud cover.

South Africa v Pakistan Third ODI match prediction

South Africa are 1.664/6 with Pakistan [2.34]. We're really not getting any joy on that South Africa price, which remains at the same level as before they went 2-0 down.

This about as unappetising a contest as it gets considering what is at stake: nothing. Or rather, everything in the context of players being focussed instead on a pivotal Test series.

The best advice may be to play in-play if you must have an interest. Keep the toss bias on side and look for any overreaction on the market. But we'd want at least even money South Africa and a couple of ticks on Pakistan. Trading out when the market flips back to their favourite status is advised.

South Africa v Pakistan Third ODI player bets