South Africa v Netherlands T20 World Cup Tips: Pacers threaten Dutch blitz

• Adelaide is bat-first evnue
• Markram a bet at 11/2
• Ngidi and Nortje threaten Dutch

South Africa v Netherlands
Sunday 6 November, 00:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

South Africa are sweating on the fitness of two key men, Keshav Maharaj and David Miller. Both missed the comprehensive defeat by Pakistan with back spasms.

The balance is not affected if they miss out again, though. Tabraiz Shamsi and Heinrich Klaasen are more than adequate replacements.

Probable XI: QDK, Bavuma, Rossouw, Markram, Miller/Klaasen, Stubbs, Parnell, Maharaj/Shamsi, Rabada, Ngidi, Nortje

Netherlands' crack bowling unit did the trick once against against Zimbabwe. They have four bowlers with economy rates of 7.57 or less in the tournament.

Bas de Leede has dropped down the batting order from No 3 with Tom Cooper moving up. The former star of the Big Bash is playing on his 'home' ground and should feel good about it.

Probable XI: O'Dowd, Myburgh, Cooper, Ackerman, De Leede, Edwards, Pringle, van der Merwe, van Beek, Klaaasen, van Meekeren, Glover

Pitch report

Seventeen from the last 24 at the Adelaide Oval have been won by the team batting first. And more than 160 is a minimum. Afghanistan made it look a decent batting track in running Australia close. Spinners in a chase are unlikely to be needed because the ball has been skidding on.

How to play

South Africa have to win to qualify. They are 1.051/20 to do so. Netherlands are 17.533/2. They will have to bat first one suspects and then use scoreboard pressure.

However, their batting has proved frail this tournament and the South Africa pace attack offers as stern a test as Pakistan's, which blew them away. They might struggle for 130.

Tops value

We keep faith with Aiden Markram at Sportsbook's 11/2 because his win rate is excellent. He probably should have won on his last two innings. Temba Bavuma, who astonishingly found some form against Pakistan, gives a one per cent edge on win rate versus a price of 5/1.

For the Dutch opener Max O'Dowd is solid at 7/2. Stephen Myburgh is 4/1 on win rate hut 5s is available. Cooper is 13/2, a wrong price on batting order. Lungi Ngidi and Anrich Nortje are dangers with the balls for the Dutch and are 3/1 the pair. Nortje's death job probably gives him the edge. The pair are 12s and 14s respectively for man of the match and splitting stakes is advised.