Quetta Gladiators v Multan Sultans
Saturday 11 March, 14:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Quetta are as good as knocked out. They need a whopping net run rate swing and a defeat for Zalmi in their final game to get up. Jason Roy, though, has returned in extraordinary form and his record ton against Zalmi will give them hope that he can produce something special.
Possible XI: Roy, Guptill, Smeed, Hafeez, Nawaz, Iftikhar, Umar, D Pretorius, Naseem, Hasnain, Aimal
Sultans booked their play-off spot with a nerveless run chase against Zalmi. Going after 242 would normally be considered extraordinary but Zalmi's bowling is non-existent. Rilee Rossouw smashed a ton.
Possible XI: Masood, Rizwan, Rossouw, Miller, Pollard, David, Anwar, Usama, Abbas, Ilyas, Ihsanullah
In nine games at Rawalpindi, more than 200 has been breached six times. Both teams for 180 or more (8/15 with Sportsbook), however, has only copped in four of those so betting the high par line in the late 190s if Sultans bat first would be more likely.
How to play
Quetta are 2.3811/8 with Sultans 1.705/7. It's a skinny price about Sultans, but they are in must-win territory because success should ensure they pip Islamabad for that all-important second spot in the table.
If they bat first, Sultans go big. But similarly if they have to chase we expect them to go after anything. So looking for even money in-play is fair.
Roy has been chalked up at 5/2 for top Quetta bat but he has 40 runs from 38 balls against these bowlers with two outs. Mohammad Hafeez has a much better record (albeit over a longer study period) and catches the eye at 5/1. For the second match running Rossouw has the best record of the Sultans against the opposition, averaging 86. He is 4/1.
On such a flat pitch with short boundaries, backing a century in the first-innings at 17/2 is probably decent value.