Pakistan v Zimbabwe T20 World Cup Tips: Zims primed for another shock

• Perth pitch may hurt Pakistan
• Raza 22/1 for man of the match
• Time for Rizwan to shine

Pakistan v Zimbabwe
Thursday 27 October, 12.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan could well suffer a hangover following their dreadful defeat by India. Dreadful because it was a game they had won but inexplicably lost their nerve.

Could they make adjustments to their team? With spin taking a pouding maybe Mohammad Nawaz could lose his spot to Mohammad Wasim, a thrusting, pacey all-rounder. Nawaz was also the bowler who choked at the death. A black mark for Babar Azam's captaincy, though, as he should never have been bowling the last over.

Possible XI: Rizwan, Babar, Masood, Iftikhar, Shadab, Haider, Nawaz, Asif, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem

Zimbabwe have a great chance of making the semi-finals after their washout against South Africa. With potential gimmes against Bangladesh and Netherlands, they may require only one upset to make it. Could this be it?

If it is Siknadar Raza is going to have to perform with the bat. Apart from Craig Ervine there is little to worry bowling attacks.

Probable XI: Chakabva, Ervine, Williams, Raza, Madhevere, Shumba, Burl, Jongwe, Ngarava, Chatara, Muzarabani

Pitch report

Perth has been flat in the past but twice in the tournament the side batting first has failed to muster more than 160 so it's 14 of the 22 in that regard. It might not be a coincidence that Afghanistan and Sri Lanka were the teams who struggled with pace and bounce. Pakistan, then, could be vulnerable and going under 160 is a cheap lay batting first.

How to play

Ireland's stunning win over England should inspire the likes of Zimbabwe but if there is to be another seismic shock, Pakistan will have to hit the self-destruct button as they did against India.

Although this game has been identified as one to bet the outsider, we do have worries that Zimbabwe's batting might not be up to scratch. So we're keeping stakes sensible on a price of 8.07/1.

Tops value

Mohammmad Rizwan had a rare failure against India. We're hoping Sportsbook boost him from 15/8 to 9/4 for a top-bat win. There is a big edge on him for top match bat. Sportsbook go 5/2 when he should 2/1 on career form.

For Zimbabwe, Raza will be all the rage at 4/1 for top Zimbabwe bat. Is backing him for man of the match and Zimbabwe essentially the same bet? The former is 22/1.