Pakistan v South Africa T20 World Cup Tips: Aiden on the mark

• SCG pitch suits SA's hitters
• Time for Bavuma to drop himself
• Huge value on sixes market

South Africa v Pakistan
Wednesday 3 November, 08:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

South Africa are flying after an impressive show against India. But how many more chronic performances can they take from skip Temba Bavuma?

He strikes at 89 in the last 12 months and has scored 17 runs off his last 42 balls. What is surprising is that the man has not stepped away himself. Where's the pride? Where's the embarrassment at putting team-mates under pressure.

Lungi Ngidi's wicket-taking exploits look likely to keep Tabraiz Shamsi on the sidelines as spin continues to take a back seat in the tournament.

Probable XI: De Kock, Bavuma, Rossouw, Markram, Miller, Stubbs, Parnell, Maharaj, Rabada, Nortje, Ngidi

Pakistan may finally have picked their best XI way too late. Fakhar Zaman is into the team giving their batting unfamiliar solidity.

The bowling has been disappointing, though. Despite the speed gun recordings, Haris Rauf and Shaheen Shah Afridi just haven't done enough when it's really counted. And rolling Netherlands doesn't.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Fakhar, Masood, Iftikhar, Shadab, Nawaz, Wasim, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem

Pitch report

The scores at the SCG so far, most recent last, are: 200-205-179-167. There's a decline in runs but we don't think that's the start of a trend because of a wearing surface.

South Africa's power batting puts Pakistan on notice here and they should enjoy the pace on the ball. We're looking to go over the par line of Saffers bat first in the low 160s.

How to play

South Africa are 1.674/6 with Pakistan 2.466/4. The odds look about right at this stage. Had South Africa been in that 1.705/7 region we'd probably be steaming in against a Pakistan otufit who look to have checked out. Their inexplicable go-slow in a low chase against the Dutch with net run rate on the line suggests they've had enough.

That attitude assists with a solid wager on South Africa for most sixes at 10/11. Sportsbook can't split the pair but there is no comparison in hitting in the last 12 months.

Tops value

Aiden Markram is winning top South Africa bat 30% of the time in the last two years so Sportsbook's 4/1 is value. Mohammad Rizwan is bang on an even money chance over the same priod and is boosted to 13/5.

Ngidi returns 30% oif the time for top SA bowler. The 3/1 should see some business. Bavuma's runs are available to short at 17.5 at 5/6.