Pakistan v New Zealand Third T20 Tips: Cleaver and Rizwan stand out bets

• Kiwis fail to make use of toss bias

• Win for Pakistan secures series

• Cleaver and Rizwan value

Pakistan v New Zealand
Monday 17 April, 17:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan are 2-0 up with two wins in two days. Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan were the architects of a total of 192 and then Haris Rauf - again - made the difference with the ball.

Babar and Rizwan made a ton and 50 respectively while Rauf picked up four wickets. The temptation to change up personnel will surely be resisted until the series is secure (there's three to play) but Fakhar Zaman could come under pressure from Mohammad Haris or Shan Masood.

Probable XI: Babar, Rizwan, Fakhar, Ayub, Shadab, Imad, Iftikhar, Faheem, Afridi, Rauf, Zaman

Matt Henry took two in two for New Zealand in game two. That it barely made a dent in their prospects shows how far behind in the game they were. But restricting Pakistan to under 200 really isn't a bad effort on this track.

In the chase Mark Chapman top scored for the second consecutive game but they were never in the hunt. One of Will Young or Chad Bowes is likely to make way for Dane Cleaver in the top three.

Cleaver is the only extra batter on tour and the Kiwi resources are strecthed with eight playuers at IPL.

Possible XI: Latham, Bowes, Cleaver, Mitchell, Chapman, Neesham, McConchie, Ravindra, Shipley, Lister, Henry

Pitch report

Seven times in the last ten at the Gaddafi Stadium has a side batting first busted 180. If New Zealand bat first it is possible they buck that trend and there could be a 15 or 20-run swing on the par line between them batting first and Pakistan.

It is a very decent batting track but New Zealand are short on batting calibre. It's one reason why one should avoid bets on both teams to score 160 or 170. Certainly on the latter it's a consistent, heavy loser on this ground.

Fancy prices on Pakistan for 200 or more if they bat first from the 3.505/2 region have understandable appeal.

How to play

Pakistan are as short as 1.341/3. Given that the Kiwis have failed twice to make the most of a significant toss bias for the chaser - it was seven from nine before the series began - there's nowhere to go with their 3.8514/5.

They might - just might - manage to trade that down a point if they can show gumption on the surface batting first but the top order just isn't set up for this format.

Tops value

Babar and Rizwan are consistent in T20 and one could be forgiven for thinking that alternating between the two pays off on the markets. Not so, Rizwan has been dominant on top bat and top match bat and both are value with Sportsbook's 9/4 and 16/5.

For more stress-free wagers Babar's runs can be bought at 4/5 for over 30.5 and Rizwan at 29.5 at the same price.

There's also good news on Kiwi top bat. Cleaver is a wrong price at 17/2. if he plays we're convinced he bats at No 3. He did actually open on his last appearnce for the Kiwis.