Pakistan v New Zealand Second T20 Tips: Kiwis in peril again

• Pakistan dominant in game one

• Lahore pitch is flat

• Rizwan the man to follow

Pakistan v New Zealand
Saturday 15 April, 17:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan trounced New Zealand in game one with an 88-run success. They posted 182 and then rolled their visitors for just 94.

We don't expect team changes until the series is wrapped up. It is hardly a perfectly-balanced home XI though. Saim Ayub is out of position at No 4 so credit to him for producing the knock of the first match with 47.

Five all-rounders then follow and we're not including Shaheen Afridi in that. Haris Rauf did the damage with the ball, claiming four wickets.

Probable XI: Babar, Rizwan, Fakhar, Ayub, Shadab, Iftikhar, Imad, Faheem, Afridi, Rauf, Zaman

This is a Kiwi B team and it showed. Possibly only Daryll Mitchell of the batters and Matt Henry with the ball would reckon they were strong contenders for the the first-choice XI.

Adam Milne who should be included more often did well alongside Henry. The pair claimed seven wickets between them and at the break New Zealand would have reckoned restricting Pakistan was a decent effort.

Everything fell apart with the bat. Tom Latham and Will Young don't look worthy of batting in the top three in this format at this level.

They will probably go with the same XI again but getting Dane Cleaver into open or batting Mark Chapman higher up might be smarter.

Probable XI: Latham, Bowes, Young, Mitchell, Chapman, Neesham, Ravindra, Milne, Sodhi, Lister, Henry

Pitch report

Six times in the last ten at the Gaddafi Stadium has a side batting first busted 180. Pakistan would have probably been disappointed with their total.

We could look to play for 200 or more (three in the last ten) at a slightly inflated 4.03/1.

We might have to pay 1.910/11 for Pakistan for 180 or more now. Sportsbook were going 6/5 that New Zealand busted 158.5. That shouldn't be beyond them if they batted first but it would still represent a poor effort.

How to play

Seven of the last ten at Lahore have been won by the chaser. If New Zealand can somehow reach par of 180-odd we'd be all over the hosts to get them.

That might be our best hope of a play with Pakistan prohibitive at 1.351/3 and New Zealand 3.711/4.

A simpler strategy could be to go for a trade on the Kiwis to produce the 170 needed to bring their price down by a point for a trade.

Tops value

A value window has slammed shut on Cleaver who has been cut from 4s to 17/2 after we highlighted that he was likelyto bat in the top three if he played. It is tempting to hit bigger numbers instead, like Milne at 40s or Ish Sodhi at 80s.

For Pakistan, Shadab Khan at No 5 should be shorter than 12/1. Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan, a rare double failure in game one, might not be so generous and there is appeal to playing them at 3/1 and 16/5 respectively for top match bat. On career win rates on that market only Rizwan is value. And at some gap, too - almost 10%.