Pakistan v New Zealand First ODI Tips: Pakistan need to buck up

• Pakistan wake-up call

• Mark Chapman added to squad

• Afridi at 3s a bet

Pakistan v New Zealand
Thursday 27 April 11:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan should be taking a long, hard look at themselves after squandering a 2-0 lead in the T20 series against New Zealand's reserve team. Over a longer format, they will reckon that their ability will shine through but complacency is their enemy.

There will be changes, inevitably. Fakhar Zaman and Abdullah Shafique could open the batting. Agha Salman slots into the middle order if the selectors remember strong performances.

The new-ball attack is familiar with Shaheen Shah Afridi and Haris Rauf possibly paired together again. Leggie Usama Mir and all-rounder Mohammad Wasim Junior (instead of Faheem Ashraf) could also play.

Possible XI: Fakhar, Shafique, Babar, Rizwan, Sohail, Salman, Shadab, Wasim Jnr, Afridi, Rauf, Usama

New Zealand have added Mark Chapman to the ODI squad in a rare moment of common sense for touring teams. Chapman was a sensation in the T20 series and was essentially batting on his own.

The hitter should take Will Young's place, who has had a torrid time. Tom Blundell and Henry Nicholls add quality, too, and this is a stronger unit than the T20 outfit. Matt Henry is rested.

Possible XI: Bowes, Blundell, Mitchell, Latham, Nicholls, Chapman, Neesham, Ravindra, Shipley, Milne, Tickner

Pitch report

The road that is Rawalpindi. The T20 form says this is a flat square so we expect runs. The hosts should expect to trouble 350 or more at around 2.206/5. There have been only three ODI since 2020. All were against Zimbabwe with two wins for the host and a tie. In that series 281 was defended 278 was tied and 206 chased. We may reckon Pakistan to chase a big score with the wicket holding is an option.

How to play

Don't be fooled by New Zealand's 2-1 win in Karachi in January. That was a first-choice Kiwi side. But we can't rule out another surprise in the three-game series, possibly more likely in Karachi under lights for the final three legs.

The Kiwi additions may need to adjust and, as alluded to above, the smart play may be to take chunkier odds than the pre-toss 1.434/9 on Pakistan in a sizeable chase.

Tops value

On a flat wicket it may not be smart to pin hopes on one batter to outscore his team-mates. But there are three home players with feelgood vibes - Fakhar, Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan. Fakhar and Babar have one ton and three 50s apiece in seven innings apiece against the Kiwis. Rizwan has 182 in three innings.

We await Sportsbook prices for individual runs but would be prepared to get long of Babar in the mid 30s at 4/5. Potential shorts include Tom Latham (averages 21 versus Pakistan) and, of course Young. Chapman is 5/1 to win top bat - again.

With the ball, Afridi has 12 wickets in four games and is a fair wager at 3/1, second jolly behind Rauf.