Pakistan v New Zealand Fifth ODI Tips: Agha hot for 16/1 winner

• Agha no 16s chance for top bat

• Rauf underrated with ball

• Karachi pitch is flat

Pakistan v New Zealand
Sunday 7 May, 11:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan are four-nil to the good following a strong performance in Karachi on Friday. It was almost the complete performance.

Babar Azam, Agha Salman and late hitting from Mohammad Haris and Shaheen Afridi propelled the hosts to 334 for six. There were only brief worries defending when Tom Latham and Daryl Mitchell were together and a blitz from Mark Chapman.

Haris Rauf or Afridi could be rested with Naseem Shah back in. Iftikhar Ahmed and Haris should retain their spots.

Probable XI: Fakhar, Imam, Babar, Rizwan, Agha, Iftikhar, Haris, Afridi, Usama, Wasim, Ihsanullah

New Zealand have had some decent spells in this series but they have eventually been overpowered. It's been a discovery series, finding out about players.

All-rounder Cole McConchie, Adam Milne and Chapman have enhanced credentials. Rachin Ravindra less so.

Probable XI: Young, Blundell, Mitchell, Latham, Chapman, Neesham, McConchie, Sodhi, Henry, Tickner, Lister

Pitch report

In seven ODI at Karachi National Stadium since 2019 there have been ffive scores of more than 280. Two of those busted 300. Pakistan should manage 300 or more again and the par line for them could be set at 310.5. the Kiwis could be expected for 280-285. That might be an overs play.

How to play

Pakistan are 1.528/15 with New Zealand 2.8815/8. We're still waiting for the ubiquitous Pakistan flop.

Perhaps the best chance of that is if New Zealand now bat first and get the chance to use a flat wicket to their advantage. From there they must hope for scoreboard pressure to help.

But a trade is the better option given their B-team status. Alternatively backing Pakistan at the break with a chase of up to 320 makes sense.

Tops value

Babar Azam earned us a nice little winner at 11/2 for top match bat last time. Sportsbook go 7/2 this time but he has been boosted to 11/4 for top Pakistan batter.

There's a whopping rick elsewhere, though. Agha, who was excellent in game four with a blistering fifty, has been rated at 16/1 despite batting at No 5. We have to bet that.

For the Kiwis Chapman can score quickly enough to be considred at 6/1. Daryl Mitchell has been boosted to 7/2.

With the ball Haris Rauf started the series as favourite and despite strong performances is chalked up at 10/3. That's worth an interest.