Pakistan v England
Friday 23 September, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Pakistan handed out an unexpected ten-wicket drubbing in the second match. Chasing an unlikely 200 - from around 3.505/2 - they waltzed home with three balls to spare.
What was most impressive was how Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam reinvented their style. They were ultra aggressive and matched England's nine sixes. Babar's 110 from 66 balls was a welcome return to form.
They were pricey with the ball, though. It was a surprise they only used five bowlers when Iftikhar Ahmed and Khushdil Shah were options.
Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Haider, Masood, Iftikhar, Nawaz, Khushdil, Rauf, Qadir, Dahani, Hasnain
England are not at full-strength with bat or ball but they may be forced to restock their bowling resources. Chris Woakes, Mark Wood and Reece Topley are all on tour and pencilled in for the Lahore leg. They might want to get at least one of them in.
Still, David Willey and Moeen Ali are concerns with the ball. Both have gone for more than ten an over in each contest. Sam Curran and Liam Dawson did exceptionally with the ball.
Probable XI: Salt, Hales, Malan, Duckett, Brook, Moeen, S Curran, Wiley, Dawson, Rashid, L Wood
The Karachi surface has historically been terrific for batting and it was reassuring to see batters to the fore in game two. In 13 of the last 18 first-innings 170 or more has been breached. As a result both teams to score 170 has been cut to 4/6 and both teams for 180 is 6/4 with Sportsbook. Bet the odds here.
How to play
This is a thrilling contest. The sides are well-matched insofar as they're both struggling to be tight in the field.
With five games still to go we would expect the odds to be a choice affair because of the importance of the toss. With a chase bias present, bowling first should be the way to go. The odds are going the way of a choice affair. Pakistan are 1.865/6 and England 2.166/5.
We expect a flip if England bat first before Pakistan turn it again. If England chase, they can go after up to 190. Expect around 3.505/2. Bet the match odds here.
Babar Azam (five) and Mohammad Rizwan have 17 wins from the last 21 matches on top bat. They are 13/5 and 12/5 respectively. Given the flat nature of the surface, the 6s and 7s for man of the match have appeal, too.
For England, Sportsbook have a downer on Phil Salt. He's out to 9/2 and that looks too big for an opener.
We're surprised Haris Rauf is as big as 10/3 for top Pakistan bowler given he bowls at the death and of available bowlers only Usman Qadir has a superior strike rate in the last 12 months. Bet the odds here.