Pakistan v England
Sunday 2 October, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Mohamad Rizwan and Haris Rauf were both rested for game six. Whether they return remains to be seen. It would seem odd to bring them back, however, a day later with the World Cup on the horizon. Still, they play Bangladesh and New Zealand in New Zealand next week.
Mohammad Haris couldn't take his chance with the bat. Shahnawaz Dahani came in for Rauf. Unsurprisingly with Rizwan absent Pakistan were below par despite Babar Azam 59-ball 87.
Probable XI: Babar, Haris, Masood, Haider, Iftikhar, Asif, Nawaz, Shadab, Wasim, Jamel, Dahani
Phil Salt got a big score in the nick of time. His 88 from 41 puts him ahead of Alex Hales in the race to partner Jos Buttler in the World Cup at the moment one would have thought.
Chris Woakes and Mark Wood were not involved for the eight-wicket success in Lahore on Friday but they could well come back in for Richard Gleeson and David Willey, who has been afforded a good run. We don't think England risk Buttler yet.
Probable XI: Salt, Hales, Malan, Duckett, Brook, Moeen, S Curran, Woakes, Rashid, Wood, Topley
Pakistan's 169 was the 15th time in the last 21 that there has been a score of 160 or more in first-innings. It would see a decent wager to be going over the par line if it's in the late 160s. Bet the par line here.
How to play
England's price has collapsed to 1.705/7 and in the absence of Rizwan it is hard to argue with. The toss is interesting, though. England decided to chase because they felt the dew could hurt them, ignoring the bat-first toss bias. That potentially lets in Pakistan at 2.3611/8 as a trade option if they get the opportunity to bat second.
Do bear in mind, though, that they may well be at around 2.506/4 at the break. Babar's return to form and the admirable Haris are more than capable of getting their odds down. Bet the match odds here.
We've had two wins on Moeen Ali in this series so why not make it three's a charm for top bat at a massive 11/1? It's a huge price on win rate. We're not sure Buttler is a 10/3 chance, either. If he plays he surely opens. Money back if he doesn't. Rizwan and Babar are 2/1 and 12/5 respectively. Bet the odds here.