Pakistan v England
Sunday 25 September, 15:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
Pakistan are beginning to look rather predictable: If Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan fail, so do they.
In each of the three matches there bowlers have gone round the park, too. They are without Shaheen Shah Afridi but losing one player should result in profligacy. Besides, they're only using five despite being flayed to all parts. Iftikhar isn't strong enough to play as a specialist bat.
All-rounder Mohammad Wasim could be given a game to freshen things up. Decent hitting from Shan Masood and Khushdil Shah were the bright spots.
Possible XI: Rizwan, Babar, Haider, Masood, Khushdil, Nawz, Wasim, Qadir, Rauf, Hasnain, Dahani
England brought back their bowling big guns to take a 2-1 series lead. Mark Wood returned after injury to clock 97mph and take three wickets. Reece Topley was mean on economy rate.
As a result, England never got a sweat on when defending a fantastic 221. But there are holes to pick. Why drop Alex Hales for Will Jacks when the latter is not in the World Cup squad?
Harry Brook's sensational hitting means that when Ben Stokes and Liam Livingstone become available, they have a big decision to make. It might not be good for Livingstone.
Probable XI: Salt, Jacks, Malan, Duckett, Brook, Moeen, S Curran, Dawson, Rashid, M Wood, Topley
The Karachi pitch is excellent for batting - as we have said from ball one. Around 180 should be a minimum. We may be able to go long of 170 on the first dig at 1.834/5. Sportsbook go both teams for 170 at the same price. Both for 180 is 6/4.
How to play
Pakistan are 1.9620/21 with England 2.021/1. As we said before game one this series was moving to a choice affair.
The Karachi surface should ensure that whoever bats first has the chance to trade in that 1.68/13 region. So that's a simple trade strategy.
Dew - and the historic toss bias - should mean the side batting second is still in the game. With England less reliant on two batters they are the more reliable team in the chase and we'll hope for something from 2.35/4. Bet the match odds here.
Rizwan has two rare blanks in a row and now he's been boosted to 23/10 it could be the time to play for top Pakistan bat. Babar is also 23/10. Both men rate value on the top match bat market at 10/3 and 4/1. Brook is looking chunky at 15/2 for top England and 20s for top match. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.