Pakistan v England Fifth T20 Tips: Moeen to lead England charge

Pakistan v England
Wednesday 28 September, 15.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

Pakistan levelled the series thanks to one man and one man only in the final game in Karachi: Haris Rauf. His pace and death bowling expertise rescued a game they had no right to win.

Rauf's brilliance papered over many problems, however. They are way too reliant on Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam. And even with runs on the board from those two, there's no guarantee. One wicket down going into the 19th last time they still managed only 166.

The issue is batting balance. Between Babar at No 2 and renowned finisher Asif Ali, they have a dearth of reliability. Shan Masood's torturous knock in game four was so disappointing in that regard.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Masood, Iftikhar, Khushdil, Nawaz, Asif, Wasim, Rauf, Qadir, Hasnain

England will be wondering how they lost in Karachi. They should be 3-2 up and were 1.011/100 to do so at the death. Liam Dawson's breathtaking striking had the game won. He then lost his head with one shot too many, sparking a dramatic collapse to go down by three runs.

Jos Buttler remains on the sidelines but he could return before the series is out. Chris Woakes and Mark Wood should be available for each game of the Lahore leg. Phil Salt's position as opener looks to be under threat and England may try Dawid Malan there.

Possible XI: Hales, Malan, Jacks, Duckett, Brook, Moeen, S Curran, Dawson, Woakes, Rashid, Wood

Pitch report

The Lahore surface is one we know well from the Pakistan Super League and we can bet confidently on the trends. Fourteen of the last 20 in first innings have seen scores of 160 or more. Only eight of those matches resulted in both teams notching 160, though.

Does that suggest a toss bias? You bet it does. Fourteen have been won by the side batting first.

We're not expecting huge runs but 170-180 should win the game.

How to play

Pakistan are 2.0421/20 and England 1.9420/21. It's slightly surprising the odds aren't the other way around given the result in game four but the market won't be fooled. Pakistan are one-dimensional.

They can only play one way it seems. Rizwan and Babar need a massive partnership and then they have to hope the accelerator works. England have shown they're more capable in all facets.

Therefore they are a strong wager with the toss bias in their favour. Scoreboard pressure and big-boy bowlers back in the XI should do the rest.

Tops value

Moeen Ali is a decent shout at 8/1 for top England bat. He fits the bill with form on his side and a superior win rate to the odds. Rizwan is Mr Consistent for Pakistan and the 11/5 is nowhere near short enough. Babar has been boosted to 12/5. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.