New Zealand v Sri Lanka Third T20 Tips: Tourists worth a trade chance

• Sri Lanka a trade in the chase

• Frail batting first though

• Bowlers could dominate

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Saturday 8 April, 02:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

New Zealand levelled the series in Dunedin in comprehensive fashion. Adam Milne and Chad Bowes produced strong performances to stake claims for inclusion when the IPL players are available.

Milne took five for 26 to derail the Sri Lanka batting again. Bowes then hit 31 off just 15 to put the result beyond doubt. Tim Seifert finished the job with a half-century.

Probable XI: Bowes, Seifert, Latham, Mitchell, Chapman, Neesham, Ravindra, Shipley, Sodhui, Milne, Lister

Sri Lanka's tour-long batting problems returned in game two. A total of 141 was never likely to be challenging.

The issue was a long tail. Wanindu Hasaranga is a fine player but No 7 is a spot too high and likewsie for the rest that follow, including Maheesh Theekshana at No 8. From 122 for four in the 16th they should have posted 170-odd.

They had seven bowling options in that XI so could afford to make room for another batter, possibly in the form of N Fernando.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Perera, N Fernando, Mendis, Dhananjaya, Asalanka, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Theekshana, Madushan, Madushanka

Pitch report

More than 160 has been busted only four times at the Queenstown Events Centre in 11 matches. Nine of those are since December 2021.

Given Sri Lanka's batting frailty shorting then for 160 or more would seem sensible were they to bat first. Sportsbook had suspended their innings runs market at 173.5 over or under at 10/11 the pair. If that comes live again from 170.5 we're in. There is no rain forecast.

How to play

Perhaps the nine-wicket hammering is misleading in Dunedin. Collapses happen and Sri Lanka's came at a time when they were looking to push on for a challenging total. Up until that point they were bang in the game.

If they can strengthen their batting then there is the option for a trade at 3.02/1. The caveat would be that they have to chase. Six of the 11 matches have been won by the chaser and we want to keep a low first-innings total on side.

Tops value

Respective openers Seifert and Pathnum Nissanka have both been boosted to 4/1 for top bat for their team with Sportsbook. Bowes could be chunky for the Kiwis at 7/2. The standout for Sri Lanka is IPL-bound Dasun Shanaka at 11s.

With runs having been in short supply we also the 2/1 that no fifty is scored in the first-innings. Bowlers could be to the fore so the 16/1 about Matt Henry taking man of the match has appeal. Henry has been rested so far but there';s a chance he comes back for the decider.