New Zealand v Sri Lanka Second ODI Tips: Rain could be a great leveller

• New Zealand short favs

• Sri Lanka runs a short

• Phillips a bet at 10/1

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Tuesday 28 March, 02:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

Henry Shipley, New Zealand's latest pacer off the production line, took a maiden five-wicket haul to render game one a mismatch. He dismissed five of the top seven as Sri Lanka capitulated to 76 all out.

The hosts had tried a new opening partnership with debutant Chad Bowes and Finn Allen and it had plenty of intent. Allen managed a rapid half-century. Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips and Rachin Ravindra all chipped in.

Matt Henry could probably do with a rest so don't be surprised if Lockie Ferguson came in. Allen and Phuillips have left for IPL so Henry Nicholls opens and Mark Chapman is added.

Probable XI: Bowes, Nicholls, Nicholls, Young, Latham, Chapman, Ravindra, Shipley, Henry, Sodhi, Tickner

Sri Lanka would have been happy at the break to have restricted the Kiwis to 276 at small Eden Park. But they were blown away by Shipley with Angelo Mathews top scoring with just 18.

In an effort to give the batters more confidence Sri Lanka may react by dropping Dilshan Madushanka, who was expensive, and replacing him with all-rounder Dhananjaya de Silva. Another option is shoehorning a top-order bat, probably Sahan Arachchighe, and using Mathews as a sixth bowler.

Possible XI: Nissanka, N Fernando, Kusal, Mathews, Asalanka, Dhananjaya, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Rajitha, Lahiru

Pitch report

Five of the last ten first-innings without rain interfering have come in at under 230 at the Hagley Oval. But that is a sequence which stretches back to 2015. Sri Lanka were rolled for 117 in that year.

With rain around this doesn't have the feel of a run glut. Indeed, we could face losing overs. Considering Sri Lanka's struggles in Auckland, and the fact that the ball could be zipping around, shorting their runs line in the mid 240s could be a solid play.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.434/9 with Sri Lanka 3.259/4. We're caught between stools here. On the one hand we recognise that, man for man, Sri Lanka should be bang at it. On the other, they were thrashed at Eden Park.

It may be that we wait for the toss, hope Sri Lanka bowl first (thus avoding New Zealand's strongest suit in the chase) and hope for seam-friendly conditions which a poor weather forecast provides.

That could give us an opportunity to get with Sri Lanka but it has to be said that their current price doesn't get us excited. It would be a trade only.

Tops value

Nicholls is boosted with Sportsbook to 4/1 for top Kiwi bat. Chapman is rated at 14/1 and that is tempting because of his rapid-scoring ability.

Mathews has been installed as 3/1 favourite for top Sri Lanka bat with Kusal Mendis boosted to 9/2.

With seamers to the fore, Matt Henry, Shipley and Blair Ticker may have appeal for player f the match at 11, 14s and 16s respectively.