New Zealand v Sri Lanka First T20 Tips: Risk tourists in chase

• Sri Lanka 2.747/4 should hold

• New Zealand pick reserve team

• Shanaka and Hasaranga key

New Zealand v Sri Lanka
Sunday 2 April, 02:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

New Zealand are not at full strength. Kane Williamson, Glenn Phillips, Finn Allen, Devon Conway, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Michael Bracewell and Trent Boult are all IPL-engaged. So this is a hotch-potch squad.

Tom Latham is skipper despite not really being a T20 player. He could open or bat at No 3 or 4. Chad Bowes really should open and give it a crack. Tim Seifert is another potential partner. Jimmy Neesham at least provides some all-round experience and Adam Milne is a gun with the ball. Matt Henry may be rested with Ben Lister included.

Possible XI: Bowes, Latham, Young, Mitchell, Seifert, Chapman, Neesham, Sodhi, Shipley, Milne, Lister

Sri Lanka are hoping for better performances in the T20 leg. Their batting ability has deserted them pretty much since the first Test. As a result they may pack the batting here including Kusal Perera for the first time in two years.

With the ball, two from three of Dilshan Madushanka, Pramod Madushan and Kasun Rajitha may miss out. Madushan would be very unfortunate to not be involved as he has an excellent 12-month record.

Despite Sri Lanka bizarrely ignoring Bhanuka Rajapaksa they are at full-strength, relaint on Dasun Shanaka and Wanindi Hasaranga.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Asalanka, Kusal Perera, Dhananjaya, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Karunaratne, Theekshana, Madushanka, Madushan

Pitch report

With Eden Park's small perimeter we could be forgiven for expecting runs. The recent record doesn't back that up. Four times in the last 13 has a side busted more than 160 in first-innings.

Given Sri Lanka's batting woes on tour and some wet conditions leading up to the clash (the forecast on the day at the moment has no rain), going under 160 Sri Lanka runs at 2.001/1 or 2.1011/10 in first-innings is likely to be a popular option.

How to play

There's also a toss bias in play here potentially. Eight of the last 13 have been won by the team batting second. That provides us with a route to value on Sri Lanka on the match odds at 2.747/4.

It also helpfully navigates a way round Sri Lanka's batting blowing up in the first dig. If bowling conditions are friendly, there's also a hope that an inexperienced home line-up can come unstuck. Sri Lanka are not the worst interest in a chase so fingers crossed.

Tops value

Rachin Ravindra bats at No 3 domestically so we note Sportsbook's 12/1 that he top scores for the hosts. Latham has been priced at 5s and it looks likely it will be him or Seifert who joins Bowes at the top of the order. With the ball, Milne's death work makes him a fair option at 10/2 for top Kiwi.

Shanaka is 11/2 for top Sri Lankan bat while Madushanka looks underrated at 5/1.