New Zealand v Pakistan T20 World Cup Semi-final Tips: Pacers can knock out Kiwis

• Pakistan bowling key on flat SCG pitch
• Mitchell an 8/1 pick
• Afridi in fine form

New Zealand v Pakistan
Wednesday 9 October, 08:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Team news

New Zealand are ranked at at Nos 2 and 3 for batting power and bowling economy in this tournament. It makes them by far the most disciplined team across the facets. And yet they could be better with a bold move.

Dropping Kane Williamson would be cosnidered a gamble at this stage but where is the value in a guy who has 132 runs at a strike rate of 116 and costs them matches? Remember his disastrous innings against England?

Probable XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Mitchell, Neesham, Santner, Southee, Sodhi, Ferguson, Boult

Pakistan have come from nowhere to make the semis. Their harrowing loss to India in the first match would have finished off most teams. The rest would have been cooked by a loss to Zimbabwe.

Either they don't deserve to be here or they have suddenly found form. What we do know is that they are the most effective bowling team in the competition and Shaheen Shah Afridi is tearing in after overcoming injury.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Haris, Masood, Iftikhar, Shadab, Nawaz, Wasim, Afridi, Rauf, Naseem

Pitch report

The SCG has been good for batting. In the six games so far, four first-innings have busted 170 or more. Sri Lanka really should have made it five against England. Five of the six games have been won by the side batting first but we're not going to get too hung up on that stat. Over the longer study period of 26 games, it's 15 wins. The innings runs market is here. There is no rain forecast and there is a reserve day.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.875/6 with Pakistan 2.1411/10. There's not a huge amount wrong with those odds so a wager on Pakistan doesn't scream value. However, it is probably the wise call.

On a potentially flat wicket Pakistan's killer pace bowling gives them an edge, a point of difference that could swing the game. They also have decent form against the Kiwis. They have won seven of the last ten, including 2-1 success in the tri-series last month.

Pakistan's top order will face their own stern test but there are signs that Mohammad Rizwan is beginning to find his feet and the addition of Mohammad Haris at No 3 is a boost. The less said about Babar Azam's form the better. Anything he can do is a bonus.

Team news

There are win-rate value calls for batters and bowlers for this one. Glenn Phillips has a 29% win rate in the last two years and goes for three-in-a-row at Sportsbook's 4s. Daryl Mitchell gives us a 2% edge at 8/1. Trent Boult returns 35% of the time with top bowler and is 5/2.

For Pakistan Rizwan's incredible win rate continues for top Pakistan bat. He's an even-money shot in the last two years and Sportsbook have boosted him to 3/1. Afridi, who is 11/1 for man of the match, returns 30% of the time for top bowler and is 3/1.