New Zealand v Pakistan T20 Tips: Shadab worth a follow at 9/1

New Zealand v Pakistan
Tuesday 11 October 03.00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

New Zealand have one win from two. They lost to Pakistan but comfortably despatched Bangladesh. There is plenty of room for improvement.

For a start, Kane Williamson needs to get a shift on. He's brought dreadful form again and twin strike rates of 103 is 2003 vintage.

Lockie Ferguson is absent so far with fitness issues. The Kiwis are probably stronger with him in the XI although there's no guarantee that they pick him with options including Tim Southee, Trent Boult and the excellent Adam Milne.

Finn Allen's good striking is, quite rightly, keeping out Martin Guptill. There is a worry they drop him, though.

Probable XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Chapman, Neesham, Bracewell, Milne, Sodhi, Southee, Boult

Pakistan might be tempted to experiment. But there's little fresh blood they could bring in. Khushdil Shah to be as ineffective as Hader Ali? Maybe Shahnawaz Dahani makes way for Mohammad Hasnain in the pace department.

Shadab Khan batted at No 4 in a successful (below-par_ chase against the Kiwis last time. But all that achieves is further delays the brilliant Asif Ali's arrival at the crease. If Pakistan want o be bold, get him in as early as possible.

Probable XI: Rizwan, Babar, Masood, Shadab, Haider, Iftikhar, Asif Ali, Nawaz, Wasim, Rauf, Hasnain

Pitch report

The Hagley Oval has produced scores of 167-147-137 in the first dig so far. It's hard to reckon that betting on big runs is the way forward with the pitch looking slow and unlikely to get quicker. Spin has been key. Ish Sodhi and Michael Bracewell were mean against Bangladesh and the Kiwis used Glen Phillips' part-time spin because of the grip. Under 150 could be the play.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.794/5 from a choice-affair last time against Pakistan. They were soundly beaten in that game. Although we think that the Kiwis are a stronger and more all-round unit, the prices aren't right.

Not least because with the pitch taking spin, it plays to a rare strength for Pakistan in this format. They are likely to trade as jollies from 2.206/5. Bet the match odds market here.

Tops value

Twice we've bet Glenn Phillips and twice no joy. But Sportsbook's 11/2 remains a bet on win rate and he has been batting at No 4. It should pay to keep the faith.

For Pakistan, Shadab is probably underrated at 9/1 given he's keen on making the No 4 slot his own. It's been a problem for Pakistan and his 34 from 22 was a good audition. The metronomic Mohammad Rizwan is 23/10 with Sportsbook.

Milne is 9/2 for top Kiwi bowler. He only got through two overs against Bangladesh but is a death-over specialist.