New Zealand v India 2nd T20 Tips: Thrash and splash makes India value

• Mount Manganui pitch and weather poor

• India underrated in the chase

• Top bat bets need 10 overs

New Zealand v India
Sunday 20 October, 00:00
TV: Live on BT Sports

Team news

So much for a new era for New Zealand after another World CUp knockout defeat. Ever the bridesmaids reckon Kane Williamson will eventually get lucky. he slots in again at No 3.

Finn Allen and Devon Conway reprise their opening roles from the World Cup. Faith in Allen's strike rate suggests the New Zealanders have some understanding of what is required.

The bowling attack remains strong. Adam Milne and Lockie Ferguson are a terrific pairing. They could play a third seamer in Blair Tickner dependent on conditions. If not Michael Bracewell adds bowling and batting depth.

Possible XI: Allen, Conway, Williamson, Phillips, Mitchell, Neesham, Bracewell, Santner, Southee, Milne, Ferguson

Will India let off the handbrake? Probably. The curious thing with India is that outside of World Cups they are gung-ho. But when it really counts they go into their shell.

There are opportunities here for Shubman Gill and Ishan Kishan in the opening berths. Rishabh Pant could bat at No 3 although that might not be so bright. Getting Suryakumar Yadav in as qucikly as possible is the smart play.

Like the Kiwis, the strength is with the ball. Arshdeep has emered as an excellent operator and pairing him with Harshal Patel is enticing.

Possible XI: Gill, Kishan, Pant, Yadav, Hardik, Samson/Shreyas, Hooda, Sundar, Harshal, Arshdeep, Umran Malik

Pitch report

The Mount Manganui surface has been predictable in the last two years. Only four first-innings from 13 have busted 160 or more. The confusing element - there always has to be one doesn't there? - is the 238 amassed by New Zealand against West Indies in November 2020.

With more rain forecast, it would probably be unwise to start going long of innings runs. It very much has a feel of an unders game.

How to play

New Zealand are 1.768/11 and India 2.305/4. In a potentially shortened match-up (a minimum of five overs are required), it is hard to reckon that the hosts are anything close to value.

India are the wager, then. But with a caveat. We'd rather they chased because it remains their strongest suit and also means they could avoid being rolled on a green one first up.

The forecast is very poor again and it would be no surprise if this is another washout. Indeed, the toss winner is likely to chase for the benefit of knowing how many runs will be required off each over in the event of a DLS ruling.

Tops value

Sportsbook requires 10 overs for top bat bets to stand and 15 for top bowlers. For the former, Conway as an opener has appeal at a boosted 13/5. India's Suryakumar Yadav is also boosted to 7/2 but he's unlikely to open. Gill and Kishan, who should do, are 16/5 and 4/1 respectively. The pair also have appeal at 6s and 10s respectively for top match bat.