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class="entry_header"> <h1 class="entry_header__title">New Zealand v England First Test Player Tips: Southee could shine with bat and ball in the gloom</h1> <ul class="entry_header__meta"> <li><a href="https://betting.betfair.com/authors/ed-hawkins/">Ed Hawkins</a></li> <li><time datetime="2023-02-15">15 February 2023</time></li> <li>2:00 min read</li> </ul> <script type="application/ld+json"> { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "New Zealand v England First Test Player Tips: Southee could shine with bat and ball in the gloom", "name": "New Zealand v England First Test Player Tips: Southee could shine with bat and ball in the gloom", "description": "Ed Hawkins has all the data and trends to make sense of the side markets for game one from Mount Maunganui on Thursday.", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/cricket-tips/new-zealand-v-england-first-test-player-tips-southee-could-shine-in-the-gloom-140223-194.html", "mainEntityOfPage": "https://betting.betfair.com/cricket/cricket-tips/new-zealand-v-england-first-test-player-tips-southee-could-shine-in-the-gloom-140223-194.html", "datePublished": "2023-02-15T12:30:00+00:00", "dateModified": "2023-02-16T07:09:00+00:00", "articleBody": "Ed Hawkins has all the data and trends to make sense of the side markets for game one from Mount Maunganui on Thursday. Southee primed Also value to top score Mitchell 7/1 for top Kiwi bat New Zealand v EnglandThursday 16 February, 01:00TV: Live on Sky Sports Perfect conditions for home skip If one could pick a situation for Tim Southee to return to his most destructive swing-bowling form, it might be the first Test at Mount Maunganui. It's a day-night Test, with a pink ball, moist conditions, a potentially green pitch (if early snaps of the surface are anything to go by) and he is attack leader with Trent Boult missing. There's no Matt Henry, a dangerous bowler of bend himself, or the admirable Kyle Jamieson. Now all we need is the right price for him to be top Kiwi bowler in the first dig. Sportsbook have obliged in comparison to our study period. They go 5/2, rating him a 28.6% chance. He has ten wins in his last 31, a hit rate of 32.2%. Southee has a decent record with the pink ball. He has 15 wickets in three matches. Only Boult has more wickets (in one less game) so we cannot over-emphasise how him important his absence is. Back T Southee top NZ 1st inns bowler 5/2 Still, we do have to be wary of Neil Wagner. Wagner has a better record in terms of strike rate and average at the venue but we're hoping the swinging pink ball keeps Southee keen. Wagner is more of a battering ram and likes to dig it in to Test batters' defences on the back foot. He is a quality bowler but this might not be a surface which requies suce brute force. NZ top bowler wins/matchesSouthee 10 2t/31Wagner 7 2t/30 Take a chance on lower order There's rare value on top Kiwi bat. Kane Williamson is usually overrated but Sportsbook 5/2 provides an edge on win rate of just shy of two percentage points. Still, it's not the biggest chunk available of the top-order batters. Two-and-a-half is given up on Henry Nicholls at 7/1. Nicholls has a solid record against England. But what do we do about Daryl Mitchell at the same price with the same win rate over a much shorter study period? Back D Mitchell top NZ 1st inns bat @ 7/1 It is a very tempting wager considering his recent run glut against this very England attack. He is also more protected from the new ball. Perhaps the answer is to swerve them all and plump for Southee at 100s. He shouldn't be as big on ability or conditions. Back T Southee top NZ 1st inns bat @ 100/1 Alas there's a dearth of value on top England bat with the gravy train on Ollie Pope at big prices derailed now he's been shortened to 4s. NZ top batsman wins/matchesWilliamson 10/33Young 0/9Conway 2/9Latham 8/43Nicholls 6/40Mitchell 2/13Blundell 1/16Southee 1/35 England top batsman wins/matchesCrawley 4/30Pope 6/29Root 10/46Stokes 4/34Bairstow 4/25Foakes 2/12 ", "image":[ "https://betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.728x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.547x410.jpg", "https://betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.410x410.jpg" ], "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "Betting.Betfair", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://betting.cdnppb.net/assets/img/betfairlogoblack.ea48b4e0.png" }, "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/" }, "author": { "@type": "Person", "name": "Ed Hawkins", "url": "https://betting.betfair.com/authors/ed_hawkins" } } </script> </header> <div class="two_column_layout"> <main class="entry_main"> <div class="entry_img"> <img src="//betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.728x410.jpg" srcset="//betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.450x253.jpg 450w, //betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.600x338.jpg 600w, //betting.cdnppb.net/cricket/Tim-Southee-1280-Test-NZ.728x410.jpg 728w" alt="Tim Southee"> <figcaption class="entry_img__caption">Southee could star with bat and ball</figcaption> </div> <div class="entry_actions"> <div> <a class="button button--dark" href="https://promos.betfair.com/promotion?promoCode=ACQZBGC01B10G30A&prod=90&rfr=977215">Join</a> </div> <div> <a class="button btn--market" data-market_full="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922" href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">View market</a> </div> <div class="entry_actions__social entry_actions__social--twitter"> <a 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href="https://t.me/share/url?url=https%3A%2F%2Fbetting.betfair.com%2Fcricket%2Fcricket-tips%2Fnew-zealand-v-england-first-test-player-tips-southee-could-shine-in-the-gloom-140223-194.html&text=New%20Zealand%20v%20England%20First%20Test%20Player%20Tips%3A%20Southee%20could%20shine%20with%20bat%20and%20ball%20in%20the%20gloom" target="_blank" title="Telegram"><span class="sprite_icon sprite_icon--telegram">Telegram</span></a> </div> </div> <div class="entry_body has-odds"> <div class="entry_body__intro"><p>Ed Hawkins has all the data and trends to make sense of the side markets for game one from Mount Maunganui on Thursday.</p></div> <div class="entry_body__content"> <div class="editor"> <ul> <li> <h3><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922"><strong>Southee primed</strong></a></h3> </li> <li> <h3><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">Also value to top score</a></h3> </li> <li> <h3><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922"><strong>Mitchell 7/1 for top Kiwi bat</strong></a></h3> </li> <hr><p><strong><a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.207867868">New Zealand v England</a><br>Thursday 16 February, 01:00<br>TV: Live on Sky Sports</strong></p><h2>Perfect conditions for home skip</h2><p></p><p>If one could pick a situation for <strong>Tim Southee</strong> to return to his most destructive swing-bowling form, it might be the first Test at Mount Maunganui.</p><p>It's a day-night Test, with a pink ball, moist conditions, a potentially green pitch (if early snaps of the surface are anything to go by) and he is attack leader with Trent Boult missing. There's no Matt Henry, a dangerous bowler of bend himself, or the admirable Kyle Jamieson.</p><p>Now <strong>all we need is the right price for him to be top Kiwi bowler</strong> in the first dig. <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">Sportsbook </a>have obliged in comparison to our study period. They go <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">5/2</a>, rating him a 28.6% chance. He has ten wins in his last 31, a hit rate of 32.2%.</p><p>Southee has a decent record with the pink ball. He has 15 wickets in three matches. Only Boult has more wickets (in one less game) so we cannot over-emphasise how him important his absence is.</p><div class="bet_promo_banner"> <p>Back T Southee top NZ 1st inns bowler</p> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922" class="bet_promo_banner__link" rel="noopener">5/2</a></div><p>Still, <strong>we do have to be wary of Neil Wagner.</strong> Wagner has a better record in terms of strike rate and average at the venue but we're hoping the swinging pink ball keeps Southee keen.</p><p>Wagner is more of a battering ram and likes to dig it in to Test batters' defences on the back foot. He is a quality bowler but this might not be a surface which requies suce brute force.</p><p><strong>NZ top bowler wins/matches</strong><br>Southee 10 2t/31<br>Wagner 7 2t/30</p><h2>Take a chance on lower order</h2><p></p><p>There's rare value on top Kiwi bat. <strong>Kane Williamson</strong> is usually overrated but Sportsbook <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">5/2</a> provides an edge on win rate of just shy of two percentage points.</p><p>Still, it's not the biggest chunk available of the top-order batters. Two-and-a-half is given up on <strong><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">Henry Nicholls at 7/1</a>.</strong> Nicholls has a solid record against England. But what do we do about <strong>Daryl Mitchell</strong> <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">at the same price</a> with the same win rate over a much shorter study period?</p><div class="bet_promo_banner"> <p>Back D Mitchell top NZ 1st inns bat @</p> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922" class="bet_promo_banner__link" rel="noopener">7/1</a></div><p>It is a very tempting wager considering his recent run glut against this very England attack. He is also more protected from the new ball. Perhaps the answer is to swerve them all and <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922"><strong>plump for Southee at 100s</strong></a>. He shouldn't be as big on ability or conditions.</p><div class="bet_promo_banner"> <p>Back T Southee top NZ 1st inns bat @</p> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922" class="bet_promo_banner__link" rel="noopener">100/1</a></div><p>Alas there's a dearth of value on top England bat with the gravy train on Ollie Pope at big prices derailed now he's been <a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">shortened to 4s.</a></p><p><strong>NZ top batsman wins/matches</strong><br>Williamson 10/33<br>Young 0/9<br>Conway 2/9<br>Latham 8/43<br>Nicholls 6/40<br>Mitchell 2/13<br>Blundell 1/16<br>Southee 1/35</p><p><strong>England top batsman wins/matches<br></strong>Crawley 4/30<br>Pope 6/29<br>Root 10/46<br>Stokes 4/34<br>Bairstow 4/25<br>Foakes 2/12</p><p></p></ul> </div> </div> <div class="recommended_bets betslip_goto no_banners" data-banner_cta="Join"> <h3>Recommended bets</h3> <div class="editor editor--reversed"> <p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">(1pts) Back T Southee top NZ 1st inns bowler <b class="inline_odds" title="5/2"><span class="inline_odds__main">3.50</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">5/2</span></b></a><p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">(0.5pts) Back D Mitchell top NZ 1st inns bat <b class="inline_odds" title="7/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">8.00</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">7/1</span></b></a></p><p><a href="https://www.betfair.com/sport/cricket/test-matches/new-zealand-v-england/31978922">(0.25pts) Back T Southee top NZ 1st inns bat <b class="inline_odds" title="100/1"><span class="inline_odds__main">101.0</span><span class="inline_odds__tooltip">100/1</span></b></a></p></p> </div> </div> <section class="betting_copy"> <div class="editor"> <h2 class="promo-name bf-sportsbook" data-qa="promo-name">New 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