Netherlands v England
Friday 17 June, 10.00
TV: Live on Sky Sports
To the Max
Uncompetitive contests can be stressful to bet on. They represent a challenge because in a true heat you know that a clutch of players from both teams will contribute. In a mismatch, it could be just one. In short, you can end up feeling a right mug.
And decoding the tops markets can be, if you'll pardon the pun, like deciphering double Dutch. How on earth, for example, do we make sense of the top runscorer and wicket-taker market for the home team.
The answer, simply, is look at how individual players perform on the respective markets. Tell me how often they win. Once you've worked that out, you can match win rate with Sportsbook's implied probability and find the edge.
It's a great relief, then, to report that there are a couple of option with the bat for the Netherlands. Max O'Dowd and Scott Edwards represent decent wagers.
Top Netherlands bat wins/matches last 3 years
O'Dowd is expected to open the batting. He has a win rate of 35.7%, which is extremely impressive. With Sportsbook rating him at 4/1 after a more than generous price-boost, there's an edge of 15.7%.
Of course we're concerned about the step up in class. On the flip side, will O'Dowd be? This isn't England's strongest bowling attack. Far from it. Also in his favour is the fact that his previous opening partner, Stephan Myburgh, who was a real rival in the market, has retired.
There is not much to beat. And we understand swerving a short-priced opener for someone in the middle- or lower-order based on the notion that England will rip through the top order, meaning 30 or 40 wins it.
If that is to happen, wicketkeeper-bat Edwards is a decent pick. The win rate is strong at 23.5% and the edge is healthy at 8.1%.
With the ball, Kent and Manchester Originals pacer Fred Klaassen will be popular at 5/2. He has returned six times in 11. However, Logan van Beek and Valerie Kingma have returned five times out of 11 each and are bigger at 3/1 and 7/2 respectively. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
Roy not the boy
Do we abandon win rates for England tops, recognising that in an uncompetitive field they are worth less? Not entirely. They might not provide us with a winner, but they can stop us backing a loser.
For example, do we really want to be betting Jason Roy at 13/5 when he has zero wins in his last 10. Or Jos Buttler with zero in six when he's 13/5?
Top England bat wins/matches last 2 years
S Curran 1/6
Probably not. It's a great shame that Jonny Bairstow (look at that success rate) isn't available. Eoin Morgan has a chance at 9/1. We just have to make our peace with the fact that he might not get a hit.
England's ODI matches in the last two years have been hit by Covid, injuries and withdrawals. Their XIs have been a who's who of emerging talent. This can make the data a little sketchy so it's not a bad idea to side with (pretty much) the one constant: the skip.
Ti get maximum value, however, we're prepared to wait for in-play magic. We're confident that Morgan's price will inflate because of the strong chance of runs ahead of him in the order. Play from 16/1. Bet the Sportsbook markets here.
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